Global transition to future technologies like Artificial Intelligence, 5G and Big Data among others have started affecting the global geopolitics .
What is the relationship between geopolitics and technology?
Geopolitics - interactions and relationship among nation states. The technology development and adoption not only affect the nature of geopolitics but also gets affected by it. For example, Russia’s military technological development was largely driven by its susceptibility on its western borders.
Following geopolitical factors affecting technological access, adoption and development:
- Geographical position: role in determining the technological priorities. For example, due to its harsh geography and scarce water resources, Israel develop technologies that conserve, reuse and desalinate water
- Relative access to resources: gives the country a position in the global economy. For example, large scale availability of labour puts China at a comparative advantage in labour intensive sectors; availability of capital in US at comparative advantage for Research and Development
- Relationship with other countries: relationship among countries enables sharing of technology, thus enabling collective development. For example of India-Israel relations is sharing of agricultural technology
- National Priorities and domestic constraints: Nature of policy like regulatory environments, nature of education systems, extent of social acceptance for technology among others also drive the global distribution of technological advancement. For example, tech-driven private sector moves towards nations with conducive environment
How can these technological changes potentially alter the geopolitical landscape?
- Security: new challenges in the realm of Cybersecurity, threats like Hybrid Warfare and exploiting vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure like telecommunications. The relative deprivation of these technologies within countries alters the security balance among countries.
- For instance, US alongside countries like UK and France have been apprehensive of penetration of Huawei technologies
- International Standing: extent of technological development influences political standing both directly and indirectly. For instance, Israel despite being a small country, in a volatile neighborhood has considerable global influence.
- Economic Growth: enables higher worker productivity, improved efficiencies, enhanced quality of products and services.
How the current geopolitics of technology is playing out globally?
- Technologically authoritarian reaction: Countries that have closed their data markets and restricted the flow of technology- such as China- would come under this category.
- Technologically democratic reaction: Countries that are guided by judicial standards, the rule of law, and support the freer — but not always free — movement of data and technology .
The interplay between these two types has created political, ideological and economic tensions in the global realm and have generated following geopolitical debates:
- What effect will technology have on future of US-China relationship?
- US’s apprehension over threat from rising China has created a tendency of decoupling with regard to technology, talent and investment in these countries. The way this issue moves forward will have large impact on future of technology and associated geopolitics.
- Will internet break into ‘splinternet’?
- worldwide web could segment into a collection of independent digital ecosystems or “splinternets.” This emerging model could be attractive to states and businesses that seek to exert greater market control in cyberspace and exclude foreign competition.
- Is creation of a global regulatory regime possible?
- current trends point towards a deglobalized and segmented world, but the growth of technology has been fastest when it was accompanied with global coordination. Keeping this in mind, it is possible that gradually national and regional regulatory regimes may come together in the near future.
- What is India’s standing in the current geopolitical scenario and what should it do?
- India may not currently have a clear regulatory framework for emerging technologies, but it has a standing in this geopolitical debate by virtue of being the largest open data market in the world.
- Close to 600 million Indians currently use 4G data.
- India also has the highest per capita consumption of data (above 10 GB per month) anywhere in the world.
- following steps could be taken for better technological regulation:
- Personal Data Protection Law (PDPL)
- Regulatory clarity on new technologies:like Blockchain, Drone technology etc. pave the way for faster adoption both by Public and Private sector
- Evolve a clear stand for global stage: on how technologies like 5G, Blockchain need to be governed
- Tech diplomacy:ministry of external affairs created the new, emerging, and strategic technologies (NEST) division in 2020. dedicated technology ambassadors or technology coordinators.
- Making technological access a key part of diplomatic relations
The geopolitical maneuvers can improve global regulation in India’s favor and increase access to technology. But this can only be capitalized if it is accompanied with domestic technological development. Efforts could be made on lines of creating entrepreneurial culture, increasing investment in R&D, providing the ecosystem to encourage private sector research and most importantly implementation of education reforms as envisaged by the New Education Policy 2020.