The year 2020 marks the 70th anniversary of diplomatic normalization between China and India, From commemorating the historical ties between two great nations. confrontation and hostility have consequently become the overwhelming theme between China and India this year.
Mao Zedong (1949-1976) | Deng Xiaoping (1978-89) | Hu Jintao (2003-13) |
Why china attacks India
- Beijing is merely attempting to ‘remind’ India of Asia’s geopolitical hierarchy—that failure to kowtow to the Middle Kingdom carries consequences.
- Growing power asymmetry between India and China.
- China is also sending message to others in east and south china sea.
- China is reminding world about limits of US without having actually to confront it. In its neo-Confucian assessment an Indian capitulation may signal the final rites of Pax Americana.
- For Too long India has been hesitant to impost costs for china's military adventurism, preferring instead to settle mater diplomatically, which emboldened china.
- Indication that China's strategy of hiding and biding is over. Its no longer a peaceful, full grown dragon is ready to awe the world with might and fire.
- Global Times warned that Beijing “is ready for both peace and war.”
- Xi Jinpings leadership - more authoritarian, more assertive. aim to securitize and weaponize global supply chains, flows of technology, finance and data, and institutions of global governance.
- India's 370 action and infra building in region.
Why it is foolish for china to make India an enemy?
- With higher escalation other theaters can open up. and India is much better placed at sea
- Indian navy dominates eastern India ocean from where most of china's cargo and energy shipment passes.
- China has always been the biggest challenge to India's strategic autonomy.
- “For minor tactical gains on the ground, China has strategically lost India.”
The Galwan Clash
- Mao Zedong, the founder of Communist China and legendary war planner, wrote during the Chinese resistance to Japanese occupation in the 1930s that “deliberately creating misconceptions for the enemy and then springing surprise attacks upon him are two ways — indeed two important means — of achieving superiority and seizing the initiative.
- Reasons
- power differential
- India building infra - Dabruk-shyok-Daulat beg Oldie. Connecting Leh to Karakoram pass.
- Global situation where china is under pressure and facing global backlash for its aggression.
- Domestic motivations for china
- Covid backlash. Xi's hold on power under stress. Any appearance of weakness could imperil his domestic grip on authority.
- infinite term extension for Xi at 19th party congress.
- India assigned two MPs to attend Taiwanese prex's virtual swearing in ceremony.
- Nationalism is also a factor in china.
- There is a certain perception that China is no Pakistan: they execute well-thought plans! (but needs questioning as this doesn't appear rational or planned)
- M Taylor Favel - the Sino-Indian border constituted a “secondary strategic direction” for China. Its principal interest lay in the direction of Taiwan and the western Pacific.
- Kurt Campbell and Mira Rapp-Hooper argued that what the world was witnessing was changed Chinese behavior.
- change in outlook of India towards china
- Tragedies often lead to clarity of vision- our misguided sense of ability to manage china seems over.
- New Delhi is loosing its innocence when it comes to China. PM held that India wants peace but will give befitting reply if provoked.
- Foreign policymaking in India cannot be an open, public or democratic exercise and that ‘quiet diplomacy’ is the way to go in dealing with China.
- India was first to warn world about BRI to world, now widely accepted. India has also been able to shape global discourse on Indo-pacific and now is working with like minded countries.
- Indian public opinion, which was already negative about China, will now become even more strongly anti-Chinese.
- New Delhi now is more realistic and demands reciprocity from Beijing.
- The events of June 15 should set alarm bells ringing in New Delhi. India’s approach, since the 1962 War, of hedging and buck-passing can be ill afforded against Xi Jinping’s China and its “wolf-warrior diplomacy”. India must “punish” rather than “deny” Chinese adventurism—a significant revision of the rules of engagement
India's preparedness (How to bring a bully to heel?)
- Exercise Him Vijay - in Arunachala
- India can't exploit china's Malacca dilemma as Indian ocean remains India's ocean.
- QUAD
- Tsinghua University professor Xu Zhangrun laments the consequences of Beijing’s global assertiveness: “Instead of embracing a [global] community,” he writes, “China is increasingly isolating itself from it.”
- India did well to reject the BRI; it must now ensure that it rejects BRI’s digital avatar as well.`(5G and Huawei)
- But one thing is certain: The few inches or feet China may gain in each such incident isn’t worth the ground it’s losing in the larger Sino-Indian relationship.
- As former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee sagely observed, “You can change friends but not neighbors.” That observation still holds true. However, the twin pillars of India’s China policy, cooperation and competition, need to be repositioned to competition and cooperation.
- build a Great Wall of Democracies.
- Meanwhile, it would be astute to remember what I Ching says, “No matter how smooth it is, there are always slopes.” Bullies blunder their way into slopes regardless of consequences. Responsible powers skirt the slopes.
- Sophistry as diplomacy has run its course and is of little value in this day and age of fluid alliances and alignments.
- Tyrants and tyrannies are not without the proverbial Achilles’ heel. In China’s case, it is the fear of democracy.
- Big powers, as has been wisely said, not only have the capacity to absorb punishment, they also have the ability to inflict punishment. The first without the latter is the hallmark of a failed power.
- In India’s China policy, a mix of three approaches-
- The first is internal balancing, strengthening themselves and developing capabilities in response to China’s growing power.
- The second is engagement, working with China to reach understandings, although this requires some give and take by both sides.
- The third is external balancing, cooperating with others to gain more leverage and security vis-à-vis Beijing. example - logistics support, increasing maritime awareness, upgrading military exercises, and regularizing strategic dialogues with the US, Japan, Australia, Russia, France, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and others
- As societies go digital, China must not be let control our public sphere by Huawei. It needs to be banned without a second thought. (currently china funds 17 or 32 unicorns of India)
- For India’s national interest, the choice is clear. There is no more room to accommodate China’s economic affections while being scorched by the Dragon’s fire.
- Made in China firms must be treated with as much caution and precaution as the nation is treating the Made in China pandemic.
- Galwan may not be the last foray by the Chinese. Smarting under the setback, they will try to strike back somewhere else because 2020 is not 1967 when not many got to know that the Chinese had suffered a defeat at Nathu La. Today the entire world knows what happened in Ladakh, and China will want to save face.
- In the long term, we need to accept that Pakistan and China will not change. Assess your choices and capabilities for the long haul, not base the entire judgment on one or two military battles. The confrontation is far more long term and we must prepare for the future bearing this in mind. None of the honey and sugar Track-2 dialogues will yield any results
- The US alliance appears to be the most seductive option. Without putting down serious money we can get a free ride on Uncle Sam’s back. But as Kissinger held- it is bad to be US's enemy it worse to be his friend. Remember, though, that when you sign up with the greatest power on earth, orbited by economic giants like the UK, Germany and Japan, you do not have the vanity of deciding your role. Ask the South Koreans or the Afghans
Vulnerabilities of China
- Unemployment at 10%
- Wolf warrior diplomacy and debt diplomacy backfiring
- Handling Vuhan virus
- QUAD
- Bad ties with Australia- called 'American dog'
- Australia and Japan plan to move industries and investment out of china to possibly india.
- USA is in trade war
- Huawei has been delegitimized globally- Britain, US, and many more banned it.
- Protests in Hongkong (one country, two systems since 1997) and Taiwan
- Highlighting that Taiwan was one of the first countries to send medical equipment to India, former diplomat G. Parthasarathy also made the case for India to strengthen its relations with Taiwan.
- Taipei Times called on Taiwan to “deepen ties with India, in particular economic, military and intelligence ties, to contain Chinese expansionism and put Xi back into his box.”
- Tibet region -new lama (Dalai Lama can be conferred Bharat Ratna)
- Suhasini Haidar, - the idea of the Tibet card is “out of step” with shifting ground realities in Tibet and cautioned the Indian establishment against using “the Tibetan population in India as a strategic tool,”
- Xinxiang region and HR violation
C R Mohan on India china
- Tragedy of India's China policy is rooted in persistent political fantasies, refusal to learn from past mistakes, and believing that US and West are source of problem in India-china relations.
- From Tagore to Nehru to Vajpayee (as minister) to Rajiv Gandhi-all have tried to create an Asian solidarity against west. China on the other hand never showed any seriousness, in fact they cooperated with west and saw unparalleled economic rise with the help of USA.
- India thought interdependence (in form of bilateral trade) will result into cooperation and creation of common interest. On the contrary, huge trade deficit and huge economic power dissimilarity is the main reason today for China's overconfidence.
- To summarize, India needs to come out of its Utopia of Asian solidarity against 'problematic' west and recognize the gigantic threat that has arisen on the other side of Himalaya.
- Brahma Chellaney, a realist India -china expert, argues that India needs to end appeasement policy which started since late eighties by PM Rajiv Gandhi and were continued by PM Vajpayee and is in continuance till now.
- He argues that peace by appeasement doesn't work. It didn't work when tried by PM Nehru with china, Vajpayee with Pak and would not work for sure even now.
- Oxford professor Rana Mitter calls China as US's forgotten ally.
- Kishor Mahbubani- Singapore china is status quasit power. Taiwan and Hong Kong are for china what goa was for India. End of two hundred of western dominance is end of status quo. Return of Asian dominance is imminent. India should keep an option. (Asian century)
- Mearsheimer(realist scholar from US)- Kishor is dead wrong if he think china is status quasit power. US has foolishly helped the rise of china. Now us is actively preventing the rise. Us has put down four preponderant Power in past century and will likely put china down too. It makes very good sense for India to co-operate with each other. Because competitive elements are increasing and cooperative decreasing in between India and china.
- Samir Saran- time to hide and bide For china is over. Middle Kingdom is emerging. They have mediaeval mindset- authoritarian, expansionist, allies dictators, bri and debt diplomacy. (Himalayan cold war?). A country shouldn't rely on other for its security concern.
China’s Dream - ending 2 centuries of humiliation
US’s Manifest Destiny
Indian Exceptionalism
Middle Kingdom with medieval mindset.
Once china comes out of slumber, it will astonish the world --Napoleon
Sun Tzu’s Art of War - “He who wishes to fight must first count the cost.”
Has china won by Kishor Mahbubani
History - Peace for centuries - broken by making of them as from civilizational state to territorial state ( nation state)
- Panchsheel - 1954;
- War 1962
- Reason - territory and Tibet; Responsible - As per china, Nehru's Forward policy and as per India strategic community, Nehru's appeasement policy; Nehru knew that china wants war, but went for appeasement- Panchsheel (Accepted Tibet as Chinese territory without asking china to recognize Arunachala or even PoK) -->India lacks Strategic culture; Tough negotiator but poor bargainer
- Outcome - humiliating defeat, Impacts national psyche even today, Even NAM members supported China(personal shock to Nehru). Emboldened Pak to start 65 war.
- after Cold peace -1978 Vajpayee went to break cold peace but has to return as China attacked Indian friend Vietnam)
- Rajeev Gandhi Visit 1988 - Broke the cold peace
- Agreement on Peace and Tranquility on Border - 1993 - Narsimha Rao - LAC
- Strategic Partnership 2003 — Institutionalization of relations
- Agreement on Guiding principles and political parameters to resolve border disputes - 2003
- 2013- MMS visit - Border defense coop agreement.
- 2017-Doklam
- 2017 Asthana consensus - Amid global uncertainty, India and China are factors of stability. Don't let differences become dispute.
- 2018- Vuhan informal summit after Doklam crisis
Official relations- Strategic partner (Coop at WTO, Climate change, SCO, G20, Multipolar WO)
Actual relations - China is Biggest security threat. Possibility of- Full fledged conventional war or a limited border conflict
Indian vs Chinese policy -
- Nehru- Asian century
- MMS- There is enough space in Himalayas
- Modi- From Inch to miles- India china millennium of exceptional synergy
- China - There can't be two tiger in a single mountain
Issues
Jeff Smith in his book - The cold peace - gave 6 Ts for issue - Tibet, Trade, Taiwan, Territory, Third party, Threat perception (security dilemma)
Boundary Issue
- On 3 sectors -
- Eastern - China claims all of Arunachala (9200 sq. mile), But India has advantage - People there favor living with India
- Western - India accuses of china occupying 3800 sq. mile of Aksai chin. Pak has given 200 sq mile Shaksgam valley to china(for China is gateway to South Asia, and All weather route connecting her two unstable region - Tibet and Xinxiang)
- Middle sector - Pockets in Uttarakhand, Himanchal and most importantly Sikkim (2003, China accepted Sikkim as Indian territory, Nathula pass opened for trade)
- Why dispute?
- From civilizational state to territorial states.
- Shimla conference in 1914 between British, Tibetan and Chinese - China didn't accept McMohan line and considers Arunchancal Pradesh and Aksai chin as outer Tibet.
- Approach of Mao - Palm(Tibet) + Digits (Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim, Ladakh, NEFA) theory.
- Stapled visa
- Approach towards resolution- As per the media, Earlier china offered package deal That India accepts Aksai chin as Chinese and China will accept Arunachala as Indian territory (Making de-facto as de-jure). But India didn't accept(should have) . Now with Rise of china where it has 5 times more GDP, 3 times more defense budget, Its ambition has also grown. China is not interested in resolution of border disputes, It just wants Peace and tranquility. While India want earliest resolution (Modi - Future generation shouldn't be prisoner of the past)
- Status of Border dispute- With advent of US plan to contain china, China improved its relations with all neighbors except India and Bhutan. To pacify India, china proposed - Peace and tranquility agreement,1993 ; Strategic partnership in 2003. They also agreed for 3 stage of border dispute settlement-
- Acceptance of the guiding principle and political parameters -Done
- Demarcation of Boundaries physically, exchanging map - Done
- Formal agreement- China is postponing (China wants India to leave Tibetan card to feel secure. India has only Tibetan card left with her)
Reasons why China has Issues with India
- Dalai Lama
- BRI —> neo-colonialism
- SCS as Vietnam gave ONGC Vides 2 years contract for oil exploration
- India’s support for Tibetan activists
India’s issues with China
- CPEC through PoK, Chinese block on Azhar proposal, NSG
- Questions over basic security apparatus in Asia
- Brahmaputra dams - though China says that they are Run of the river dams
- India thinks that China has plans to divert waters to scarce regions
- Seismic Zones - Floods, Life and Prop loss
- Used for military purposes
- However - 70% of water in Indian side = rainfall
- Water level and rainfall data = twice a day = charges money
- Trade
- Economic interdependence - improvement of relations but
- Growing Trade deficit - cause of dispute - 47% of India’s trade deficit is from China
- Exports raw materials
- Imports manufactured goods
- Indian companies can’t compete with Chinese factories
- Pharma and IT sectors not opened up
- Non-Tariff barriers
- SPS on agri produce
- Only way to address - Increase Chinese investment - problematic due to high interest rates
- Good relations of China with all of India’s neighbors
- Pak - Higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, sweeter than honey and stronger than steel . Pak currently has china as only all weather friend. With CPEC, China and pak will become phy
- SL - Hambantota
- BD - Infra, military exercises
- NP - Trade and Transit Agreement
- Bhutan - Winds of Change
- India-China Rivalry on oceans - String of pearls
Containment of China by USA
- Tibet
- Taiwan
- HRs in Xinjiang
- Asia Pivot (later renamed - Asia Rebalance) - India, Vietnam
- ASEAN establishment - main force
China’s Pearls - Hambantota, Maldives, Gwadar, Djibouti
India’s moves to contain China
- Against String of Pearls - Naval diplomacy
- Submarines
- Aircraft carriers
- IORA
- India creating its own pearls - Andamans, Sittwe, Chabahar, Seychelles, Madagascar
- Look East, West, South
- Role of Net security provider
- Project Sagar mala
- Blue Economy
- India’s stand on SCS
- Tibet
- Military exercises
- BRI - neo-colonialism
Key statements
- China’s dream and India’s rightful place - compatibility
- One of the overarching goals of Indian elites and strategic community has been to get India its rightful place in comity of nations
- Aurobindo Ghosh also said that - Rise of India would be for the benefit of humanity
- Simultaneous rise of India China which are neighbours with a conflictual history - huge academic interest & debate - proliferation of rich literature
- Changing strategic envt in Asia-Pacific has impacts on India-China relations
- Approaches to deal with China
- Idealist - Nehru - opportunity - Exchange of ideas, ppl and goods
- Realist - Threat - Balancing (Patel- China is irradient state, Aksed nehru to be war ready)
- Pragmatic - Shyam Saran, CRM - Congagement (Engagement wherever possible, Containment wherever necessary)
- India should continue to assert strategic autonomy to navigate the choppy waters of world geo-politics
Nature of India-China Relations
Kanti Bajpai
| John Garver - Intro
| Jagannath Panda
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Shashi Tharoor
| Alka Acharya
| Shiv Shankar Menon ( Fr NSA, Frn secy) To be Used —>
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Global Implications of India-China relations
US Admin
| Zhao Gancheng
| Peter E Robertson
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Social Constructivist school
Realist
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China’s Current Status needs to be understood to deal with it
C. Raja Mohan
| Kanti Bajpai
| Shyam Saran
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Suggestions for Indian Foreign Policy
Idealist - Opportunity - cooperate
Realist - threat - contain
Pragmatist school - CRM, HVP - Congagement
- Strategic communication at high level and
- P2P contacts need to be promoted
- Peace and tranquility at border
Shiv Shankar Menon ( Fr NSA, Frn secy)
To be Used —>
| Kanti Bajpai
India needs hedging strategies
We cannot change our neighbours. If not good relations, at least normalization of relations is required | Jagannath Panda
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Doklam Standoff
- Most Serious standoff
- India looks at it as - Dagger in the chickens neck
- Huge chances of limited border war
Jaitley - India of 2017 is different from 1962
Global times- India will suffer greatest loss than 1962 if it incites military conflict
Resolved by Xi-Modi meeting at the sidelines of G20 Summit only to be opened again in much prolonged Galwan valley standoff.
Praveen swamy
| Sun Tzu
| Daulat Singh
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India’s response
MK Narayanan
| Brahma Chellany
| Shyam Saran
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MISCELLANEOUS - Neighborhood
- A country’s foreign policy can be judged by its relations with its neighbours
- Kautilya
- Interdependence - imp
- India - unfortunately unsuccessful - Benevolent neighbour
- Nehru
- Panchsheel
- Curzon’s Treaty Diplomacy - India as Centre - neighbours as defence perimeters
- Muchkund Dubey - Reasons for India- neighbourhood challenges
- Asymmetry in size
- Unresolved border and other disputes
- Ethnic challenges
- Presence of external actors
- Neighbourhood policies of I & R Gandhi — India’s Monroe doctrine
- India seen as Interventionist big brother with hegemonic designs
- Deterioration of relations with neighbours
- China
- Aim : Confining India to South Asia
- No issues with any of the neighbours and ethnically distinct
- Post 1990s - economic clout
- Moves
- Welcome China as a balancer to India
- Investments and trading partner
- China’s clout in UNSC - Interlocuter state
- BRI - all south Asian neighbours joined - except Bhutan
- Want China in SAARC
- String of pearls
- India’s moves to correct the situation
- Following polices of Gujral Doctrine
- Neighbourhood First Policy - 2014
- CRM
- Concrete Gains
- BD
- Improvement with SL
- However overall performance not satisfactory
- Pak - biggest challenge
- Nepal - Ups and downs
- SL, Maldives - Uncertainty prevails
- Bhutan - winds of change
- India’s problem is not about competing with China in South Asia but managing its messy interdependence with the neighbours with some strategic vision and a lot of tactical finesse
- Way Forward
- SAARC satellite, lines of credit, capacity building, Neighbourhood first - all steps in the right direction and must be taken to their logical end
Rajiv Sikri
| Shyam Saran How India sees the world : From Kautilya to 21st century
| CRM
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Muchkund Dubey
| Harsh V Pant
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BRI
- BRI is McKinder (Eurasia) and Alfred T Mahan (Oceans) together
- China’s Marshall plan
- China’s master stroke against USA’s Pivot to Asia
- Sun Tzu
- Art of using economic statecraft for achieving
- Geo-strategic
- Geo-economic ends
- Reach
- 65% of world population
- 30% of Worlds GDP
- 2 Components
- Maritime Silk Road
- Overland Silk Route
- Chinese Motivations
- Geo-economic
- Slowing Economy
- FOREX use
- Overcapacity in infra
- Diversify market
- Employment to Chinese
- Geopolitical
- Build China’s Soft power
- Deteriorating relations with neighbours due to overuse of hard power
- Sino centric world
- Challenge to US hegemony
- Geo strategic
- Counter USA’s Asia Pivot
- Malacca Dilemma
- Better than USA’s Asia Balance
- Militaristic : ( BRI - soft power and economic)
- Protects Chinese interests without the use of hard power
- Military alliances x —> Financial integration
- Military meets x —> P2P meets
- Impact on India
- India is caught between Sense and sensibility
- Sense - Implications for national security
- Sensibility - Broad perspective of long term aspects of relations and mutual partnership
- India’s concerns
- CPEC
- BCIM - restive provinces of NE
- China making headway into India’s traditional sphere of influence ( South Asia)
- China’s Malacca dilemma ends and India’s Gwadar Dilemma begins
- Impact on overall India-China rivalry for resources and markets in Latin America and Central Asia
- Neo-colonialism - loans vs land
- Lack of transparency in planning
- Not a single gesture is favourable to India
Q. India’s non participation in the BRI summit is called as the grandest failure of FP resulting into quarantine and splendid isolation
- Scholars - who say India isolated
- Not been able to bring others on board with our sovereignty issue
- Even Japan and USA were present
- True that India no been able to bring others on board
- But its non participation will not impact India’s interests in any way
- India is too big to be isolated
- Talmiz Ahemd
- India is not w/o assets - must focus on its own projects
- Project Mausam
- SAGAR
- Chabahar
- INSTC, Asia Africa Growth Corridor
- Non participation fo India - force other countries to do a reality checks on future problems with BRI
- MEA statement for non-participation
- Include projects on Indian lands
- Push smaller countries into crushing debt cycle
- May disrupt & destroy economies
- Entire agenda is not clear
Shyam Saran
Looking China in the Eye
| CRM
| S. Jaishankar
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South China Sea Dispute
GoI has expressed displeasure - Chinese attitude towards PCA ruling on SCS
Indian stand as published by India
- Freedom of Navigation, overflight and unimpeded commerce based un UNCLOS laws
- Sea lines of SCS - critical for peace and stability
- Urges all parties to show utmost respect to UNCLOS
India interest in SCS
- Large amt of trade passes
- Oil and Gas exploration
Dispute
- Overlapping claims on the islands
- China constructing artificial islands - ecology impacted
- Assertive posture in not only SCS but also ECS - Senkaku Islands
Why China doing what its doing
- Domestic factors
- Economy slowing down
- Legitimation crisis of CCP
- Diverting attention
- China’s dream
- Ending 2 centuries of humiliation
Current status - Complex interdependence. China is one such country which will never allow India to pursue strategic autonomy.
Rajiv S