India Afghanistan and Afghan Peace process

Key developments after Taliban takeover

• India conducted Operation Devi Shakti to evacuate more than 800 people including its citizens and Afghan partners from Afghanistan.
• Ministry of External Affairs of Government of India held meeting with Taliban in Doha, focused on safety, security and early return of Indian nationals stranded in Afghanistan, and the travel of Afghan nationals, especially minorities, to India.
• UN Security Council adopted a resolution condemning deadly attacks in Afghanistan and requiring the Taliban to honour their commitment to let people freely leave Afghanistan and raised calls for combating terrorism and upholding human rights.
• The US has frozen nearly $9.5 billion in assets belonging to the Afghan central bank and stopped shipments of cash to the nation.

Concerns related to takeover of Afghanistan by Taliban for India

• Limitations of India’s existing approach: India has always supported “an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled” process for enduring peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. It involved active engagement with the elected Afghan Government and isolation of the Taliban regime.
• Revival of terrorism: India faces threat from terrorist factions such as the Haqqani group, which is among the United Nations’ designated entities as a terror group and is a key member of the Taliban. It is known for engineering and carrying out attacks against Indian assets, including the Indian embassy in Kabul.
• Also, political instability in Afghanistan can lead to resurgence of other terror groups, such as the al Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS).
• Threat to financial and strategic investments: Over the past years, India has invested an estimated $3 billion in projects across Afghanistan and other soft power tactics to strengthen friendship and goodwill between two nations. Taliban takeover not only poses a security threat to India’s assets, but also lays waste to India’s efforts.
• Increasing influence of China and Pakistan: nexus between Taliban and the Inter Services Intelligence of Pakistan raises concerns about Pakistan’s increasing influence within the country. Also, absence of U.S. financial and military aid opens up avenues for China to gain influence over the nation.
• Perpetual Regional instability: Taliban has no single Afghan identity, and it is heavily dependent on various factions representing different regions, tribes and interests. Thus, internal strife may create a perpetual instability post the takeover, which has security (rise in terrorism, illicit drug trade etc.) as well as economic (impact on bilateral and regional trade etc.) implications for India.
• Human rights violation: erosion in women’s and minority rights and the overturning of a democratic system which stands a concern for India.

Way Forward

• Establishing informal links with the Taliban government: to ensure that its assets and investments in Afghanistan aren’t imperiled.
• Developmental and Humanitarian aid: Given the continued levels of violence and the impact of the coronavirus on the Afghan economy, India should expand its development assistance.
• Working With and Through Others: broaden its engagements with Iran and Russia, explore opportunities for cooperation with China, and find common ground with the United States on Afghanistan’s future.

India needs a long-term strategic approach towards Afghanistan that weaves political, economic, military and diplomatic dimensions into a coherent whole within the framework of a grand strategy. India’s Afghan policy must be based on a clear-cut understanding of India’s strategic goals in the region, and the regional and global strategic environment.

Can Taliban achieve international recognition?

• During the last period of Taliban rule, only a handful of countries such as Pakistan recognized their government.
• But their control is more widespread now, and foreign officials have been dealing with Taliban representatives for some time. Several factors that will determine whether Taliban can gain international recognition include-
• Formation of a more inclusive leadership representing women and the country’s ethnic and religious minorities. o Respect for international commitments and basic rules of democracy and rule of law.
• Prevention of international terrorist groups from using Afghanistan as a base.