- Intro- No other relationship of India has as many layers as our relations with China. - PM Modi at Shangrila dialogue
- Historical context:
- India was the first non socialist country to establish diplomatic Relations with PRC in 1950
- After the 1962 war, Rajiv Gandhi's -1988 visit marked the beginning of improvement in ties.
- This has been taken forward through the informal summits at Wuhan and Mamallapuram.
- on border disputes: ( relations b/w both the nations has been termed as “cold peace.”)
- Kautilya’s mandal siddhant postulates that our neighbour is our natural enemy .
- 1993- agreement on maintaining peace and tranquility along LAC signed
- India and china have signed 5 boundary dispute settlement agreements from 1993 to 2013.
- Special representatives (SR) mechanism for boundary settlement initiated in 2003
- In the context of China, salami slicing denotes its strategy of territorial expansion in the South China Sea and the Himalayan regions.
- As said by SJ at 4th RNG lecture, India's priority now is to solve it's boundary disputes.
- Modi said future generations should not be prisoners of the past.
- Modi - Xi summit : “differences must not become disputes .”
- cooperation:
- international fora:
- RIC
- BRICS
- SCO
- Climate change
- India-china plus one framework for jointly training afghan diplomats
- Economic-
- Bilateral trade at $100 in 2021-22
- The issue of trade imbalance and greater market access for Indian pharmaceuticals, IT services and agricultural products has been taken up by India. India has $51B of trade deficit.
- Chinese companies- one plus,vivo,oppo occupy 60% of Indian mobile market
- cultural:
- India china share cultural ties from the times of Fa-Hein and Huen Tsang. The Kushans were placed strategically in the middle of the ancient silk route facilitiating trade and cultural exchanges.
- Indian bollywood movies like dangal,3 idiots,bajrangi bhaijan have become superhits in the Chinese box office.
- Yoga becoming increasingly popular in china.
- confrontation (Views of scholars):
Reasons given by Kanti Bajpai in his book “India Vs China: Why they aren’t friends” 1- difference in perception of each other (cultural gap) 2- territorial disputes 3- strategic partnerships (India-US, China-Pak) 4-Asymmetry in power (military and economic) |
| John Garver in his book “Protracted contest” says that common geopolitical space makes strategic conflict between both countries a compulsion |
- both countries are locked in the classical security dilemma situation in the Asian and Indo-pacific region. China’s aggression has led to inevitable militarisation of its military
- China uses “whole of state” approach to foreign policy involving strategic usage of hydro diplomacy, tech diplomacy, weaponisation of its supply chains, etc
- The ORF Foreign Policy Survey 2021: china is the biggest threat to India’s security
- India- china relations have three components- conflict,cooperation and competition. But in recent times the conflict part has seen an unusual increase straining the bilateral relations
- China’s India policy is encircle,entangle and envelop to pre-emt India's rise as a peer competitor.
- for over five decades China has sought to ensure that Pakistan drags India down. It has steadfastly supported Pakistan’s hostility towards India and helped it in acquiring the where withal to do so including in going nuclear.
- Acc to supporters of H-R theory, China is trying to expand into rimland countries (including India) to secure itself as a land based power in Eurasia.
- Vijay Gokhale in his Carnegie working paper says-
- Chinese analysts tend to dismiss Indian aspirations to become a major power as exaggerated self-perception.
- Instead of looking at India-U.S. relations from India’s perspective, China sees them only in the context of Sino-U.S. rivalry. Thus, China concludes that India-U.S. naval cooperation is evidence of India’s participation in the American encirclement and containment of China.
- both India and China see themselves as maritime powers, resulting in incompatible visions for their roles in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Calls “armed coexistence” along the boundary as new normal.
- Galwan clash-
- Officials said while an agreement for resolving Hot Springs is within reach, Demchok and Depsang are legacy issues and are tough to resolve.
- In the words of CR Mohan- India china dispute has become more structural and diplomatic band aids are not going to fix the problem
- Current developments:
- Recently China has given a go ahead to build a “super dam” on Tsang Po. For realist scholars like Brahma Chellaney this is an ex of “weaponisation of river waters.”
- India has recently made a decision to stay out of the RCEP. This is assumed to come in the backdrop of Chinese aggression at borders and its dumping of cheap goods in Indian market while not allowing its market to be opened for Indian pharma and IT.
Scholars:
Dr Aparna Pande -Chinese attitude towards India will only change when it starts viewing India as a strong democracy with military and economic power to reckon with in the Indian Ocean Region. | Shyam saran- in his book how India sees the world: India sees itself as one of the four petalled lotus ie jambudweep whereas china sees itself as the middle kingdom. It has ambitions to create sino-centric world |
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- Analytical points:
- the document Nonalignment 2.0 states categorically that China constitutes “the single most important challenge for Indian strategy” because of its increasing ability to directly impinge upon India’s “geopolitical space” in Asia
- If India is what many in the West call the “counterweight” to China’s rise, Beijing’s definite message is that it is not deterred by the counter weight. This is a message not just to India, but to a host of China’s rivals that are teaming up and eager to recruit India to the club
- It was assumed that New Delhi will be able to navigate the rise of China through deterrence and accommodation. But now decision makers in New Delhi believe that only deterrence will work against china’s assertiveness across the Himalayas and its burgeoning military, economic and diplomatic profile in India’s neighbourhood. The room for accommodation with Beijing has narrowed significantly
- Nehru in the aftermath of 1962- chinese want to show to the world that they are the top dogs in Asia.
- Mohan malik in his book China and India : great power rivalry -says the chinese want to “nip the indian challenge in the bud before it becomes a serious threat.”
- One mountain two tigers by shakti sinha-Delhi’s new realism makes it possible to approach the challenge of China without sentimentalism or unrealistic expectations
- China doesn’t see India as a ‘swing state’ any more. It sees India as an ally in progress of the U.S.
- China's aggressive wolf warrior diplomacy .
- China also planning digital silk road of the 21st century. Digital infra is to be built in parallel with the physical connectivity planned under BRI
- On chinese century: Napolean is said to have remarked that when China will come out of its slumber it will astonish the world.
- to manage China India needs three pronged approach:
- 3 sets of countries-
- Quad
- Russia and Vietnam in china’s neighbourhood
- South asian countries where the ties must be political , people to people and increased economic interdependence to reduce Chinese influence in the region
- Internal balancing- ratcheting up defence capabilities
- Engagement: coop in multilateral forums
- External balancing: by forming quad, alliances with South Korea, Australia,USA,etc.
- should india align with US:
- Former foreign secy nirupama menon rao - This is an opportunity for India to align its interests much more strongly and unequivocally with the U.S. as a principal strategic partner and infuse more energy into its relations with Japan, Australia, and the ASEAN.
- GDP of china 5 times and defence spending 4 times, Acc to BOP theory this power asymmetry translates into an unpleasant diplomatic relationship and tends to increase Chinese aggression
- Indo china towards millenium of exceptional syneegy - INCH towards MILES - pm modi
- On BRI
- no country can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
- equality. Connectivity initiatives must follow principles of financial responsibility to avoid projects that would create unsustainable debt burden for communities
- India’s recent measures-
- Banning of more than 220 chinese apps on threats of national security and sovereignty
- Introduced changes in FDI rules which mandate prior approval from the Centre for foreign investments from countries that share border with India
- India has invoked stringent quality control norms took a poor quality Chinese imports
- Chinese companies would not be allowed to take part in road projects as announced by union Minister for Road transport and highways
- India’s stand on south china sea- to upholding a rules-based international order, underpinned by respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, rule of law, transparency, freedom of navigation in the international seas and peaceful resolution of disputes
- Way forward:
- Social constructivists say the indo china war of 1962 has created an image of enemy states and can be changed by increasing people to people contacts.
- Dr. S Jaishankar proposed Three Mutuals – Mutual Respect, Mutual Sensitivities and Mutual Interests; and Eight Principles including Respect to agreements already reached
- Conclusion-Asia and the world will have a better future when India and China work together in trust and confidence, sensitive to each other's interests.