Army has cited “electoral fraud” as the reason.
Myanmar was under military rule from 1961-2011. In words of Rajiv Bhatia, Myanmar was a car driven by two drivers and now one has ejected the other taking full control
National League for Democracy leaders have been incarcerated including state counseller Aung San suu kyi
It is a reversal of democratic transition that began in 2011
Army (Tatmadaw) has viewed itself as the guardian of the state and felt threatened by the democratic turn that NLD was providing.
This was strengthened by the massive victory of NLD in 2020 elections and the defeat of USDP, the military affiliated party.
Myanmar may move closer to China as it faces threat of economic sanctions from the US
China has deep bilateral relations with the Myanmar army. It has invested in Myanmar including oil and gas pipeline through CMEC
India has historically followed a dual policy with Myanmar. On one hand it has engaged with the Myanmar army, particularly to search and neutralise NE insurgents (operation sunrise) and on the other it has called for “gradual democratic transition in a peaceful and stable manner.”
Distancing itself from Myanmar’s rulers would provide space for China’s influence to grow further; hence, New Delhi has been willing to engage with all regimes in Myanmar – whether democratic, quasi-military, or military – in recent decades.
India cannot take a black and white approach to Myanmar. Hence on one hand India must budge Myanmar to restore the progress made in democratic setup over the past decades but on the other hand must also engage with the Junta. FS Shringla became one of the few officials to visit Myanmar and hold bilateral talks with the junta. This shows India's move from the dogmas of Delhi to realpolitik of 21st century.
West’s sanctions have already strengthened the hold of Chinese in the region. It is pursuing the CMEC to gain strategic hold in the Bay of Bengal region.
The coming of Army further strengthens the anti-rohingya policies of Myanmar and would make it further difficult for India to take a stand particularly at the UNSC.
