- Intro:
- No strategic vision has captivated India’s foreign policy mandarins and strategic community in recent times as have the Indo Pacific and the Quad.
- 65% of world population and 62% of world GDP
- context:
- The term Indo Pacific was first noticed in a paper written by Gurpreet Khurana, an Indian naval officer.
- Japan PM Shinzo had talked about Confluence of the two seas in 2007 drawing inspiration from a book by Dara shikoh written in 1655. It mentioned how the freedom of navigation in the pacific was inseparable from the peace, stability and freedom of navigation in Indian ocean
- 2017- US secy of state called for free and open Indo pacific.
- 2017- Government of Australia brought a white paper explaining its vision of Indo Pacific based on three pillars – openness, security, prosperity
- 2017- quad came into existence
- 2019- USA has brought free and open Indo Pacific strategy which mentions China as a revisionist, predatory power
- 2019- ASEAN came up woth ASEAN outlook on Indo pacific that has vision similar to India's- ensuring free and open Indo pacific
- Pillars of Indo pacific-
- Maritime security
- Maritime ecology
- Maritime resources
- Capacity building and resource sharing
- Disaster risk reduction and management
- Science, technology and academic cooperation
- Trade connectivity and maritime transport
- India and the Indo-pacific:
- India views Indo pacific from the shores of Africa to the Americas
- India’s Indo-Pacific geography can perhaps be best described as a succession of semi-circles based on mandala siddhant
- The innermost semi-circle incorporates our closest neighbours. These are South Asian countries that share with us the waters of the Indian Ocean, that have shared our civilisational and cultural heritage, and that, by way of proximity, inevitably share our joys and our sorrows.
- The arc of the outer neighbourhood covers the Gulf states to our west and Southeast Asia and the ASEAN countries to our east. In a sense, this too is a rediscovery of old maritime associations, but contemporary business and trade, energy and investment flows, and labour and skills mobility have added new dimensions. Economic currents in the United Arab Emirates or Singapore, for instance, are carefully monitored by millions of families in India.
- Moving further, India has created partnerships and mechanisms with countries the opportunities, concerns and stakes of which intersect with ours. This is a broad sweep, from the Pacific Islands to the archipelagos of the western Indian Ocean and off the eastern coast of Africa.
- Three principles to make Indo pacific free,open and inclusive (make triangle)
- Freedom of navigation and overflight
- Rules based international order
- Maintaining sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations including small island nations
- Networks such as Quad, with India, the United States, Japan and Australia as participants, and the India-Japan-US, India-France-Australia and India-Indonesia-Australia trilateral arrangements offer cases in point.
- India has opened Indo pacific division and an Oceania division under the same Addl secy to ensure integration in approach. India has also come out with Indo pacific oceans initiative
- From PM Modi's Shangri-la dialogue
- Shared vision of an open, stable, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific Region.
- India does not see the Indo-Pacific Region as a strategy or as a club of limited members nor is it a club that is directed against any country.
- common rules-based order for the region.
- Such an order must believe in sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as equality of all nations, irrespective of size and strength. These rules and norms should be based on the consent of all, not on the power of the few. This must be based on faith in dialogue, and not dependence on force. It also means that when nations make international commitments, they must uphold them.
- our friendships are not alliances of containment
- India recently became observer of Indian ocean commission
- First Indo pacific trilateral dialogue
- India
- France
- Australia
- collaboration between USAID and India’s Development Partnership Administration (DPA) with a view to undertaking joint projects in the Indo pacific region
- India must join the Indo Pacific business forum and blue dot network to further strengthen quad and supplement the geopilitics of Indo Pacific with geoeconomics.
- Rory Medcalf (Book- contest for the Indo pacific )-The new Quad rhetoric is much about spirit and vision, but it is also about defining coexistence with China from a position of strength.
- India has been categorical that it is ‘for something’ in the Indo-Pacific and ‘not against somebody’, seeking to carefully calibrate its relations with the US and China in this geopolitical critical region.
- He further says “Indo pacific is an indication to the future, not a throwback to the past(referring to cold war mentality of alliances)
- In his book TIW, calls Indo pacific a contemporary version of the Great Game, there are multiple players with diverse ambitions display their strategic skills
- Indo-Pacific reflects the reality of globalization, the emergence of multi-polarity & the benefits of re-balancing. It means the overcoming of the cold war & rejection of bipolarity & dominance
- calls Indian strategy as evasive balancing, i.e. a mix of balancing and reassurance to china. He also calls Indo pacific a subset of India's china policy.
- India’s aim is not only to portray itself as a counter to China; rather, as the Asian power that can work with like-minded nations in the region to ensure regional stability.
- Derek Gross-man of RAND corp- Indo-Pacific is more than just a name. It is more than just geography. It is actually a mindset that shapes how Washington observes and responds to China.
- There is a difference in perception of Indo pacific’s geographical reach- for India,Japan and Australia it spreads from eastern shores of Africa to western shores of America, while for US it starts from eastern shore of India and is more concerned with the pacific component
- response of other players:
- Russian foreign minister Sergei lavrov - called Quad a “devious policy” by western powers to engage India in “anti china games.” Refer quad as “divisive” and “excluisivist.”
- He has said “alliances such as Asian NATO can be counterproductive” and further stressed that Sino Russia ties are “the highest in history.”
- This has been countered by Dr. Jaishankar- At Raisina dialogue 2021 he said No nation can have a “veto” over India’s partnerships and called terms such as Asian NATO a “mind game.”
- Three European countries- France , Netherlands and Germany have already released their Indo pacific strategy and more are soon to follow.
- Delhi has begun to shed its post colonial mental block against regional security partnership with post imperial Europe
- Boris Johnson said: “As a key player in the Indo-Pacific region, India is an increasingly indispensable partner for the United Kingdom as we work to boost jobs and growth, confront shared threats to our security and protect our planet.”
- Chinese reaction-
- Reaction varied from calling quad as “headline grabbing” and “foam on the sea that would soon dissipate” to an “Asian NATO.”
- Sees it as an ABC club - Any Body but China
- Asks India to be “strategically autonomous”
- Has occasionally referred to quad as a “threat to global peace and security”
- Accuses USA of stoking up “geopolitical competition” in the region.
- Says USA’s actions depict cold war mentality
- Says small cliques stoke bloc confrontation and geopolitical games.
- SJ- calls “Asian NATO” as a “lazy analogy.” Its a kind of 21st century way of responding to a more diversified, dispersed world.
- Conclusion:PM Modi at Shrangila , 2018-A rules-based international order is achievable only with a rules-based Indo-Pacific. The destiny of the world will be deeply influenced by the course of developments in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Quad - an alliance of four democracies
- Brahma Chellaney argues that as just Germany’s aggressive rise had triggered formation of Triple Entente, china’s increasingly aggressive behaviour is giving rise to an alliance of democracies in the form of Quad to ensure rules-based order under stable balance of power in the world‘s most economically dynamic region
- Kenneth waltz- whenever a country tries to become a hegemony, it suffers from counter coalitions(Quad)
- context-
- Ambedkar repeatedly expressed the desirability of a league of democracies in Asia and beyond.
- Genesis of quad lies in 2004 when The 4 navies came together to provide humanitarian assistance during Tsunami
- 2007-1st time four navies took part in malabar
- 2015- japan included as permanent member in malabar making the exercise trilateral and in 2020 Australia was invited for Malabar
- Sujan R Chinoy DG of IDSA writes- The QUAD may have started out as the proverbial blind men feeling an elephant, but there is much greater congruence among them today on the nature, shape and size of the elephant in the room that is China. The QUAD’s future will depend on the choices that China makes. The greater China’s belligerence, the faster will the QUAD’s military-security agenda gather steam,
- Four areas where quad can cooperate by Jim Mattis former defence secy of US-
- Maritime security to counter growing Chinese assertiveness in Indo pacific
- Supply chain resilience
- Technology cooperation particularly in 5G
- Create a larger grouping of Democracies within the Indo pacific to counter china
- India now has military logistics agreement with all Quad members, significantly improving interoperability as they also operate several common military platforms.
- Now India has 2+2 mechanism at ministerial level with all quad members
- Australia has planned to increase defence budget by 40% in next 10 years with a special focus on Indo pacific.
- Quad plus that involve also South Korea, New Zealand,Brazil,Israel and Vietnam.
- India now has an interest in freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, since US$66 billion worth of its exports and about 33 percent of its trade passes through that waterway
- Information Fusion Center- IOR is an effort by India to share information on white shipping in high seas across Indian ocean nations to promote trade in the region and keep an eye in the ocean
- Talks to station its bases in assumption island, signing Strategic and comprehensive partnership with Indonesia and getting Sabang port, Duqm port of Oman
- Adm Philip Davidson of Indo-Pacific Command, called the Quad a "diamond of democracies" willing to work together on diplomacy and economics, with "remarkable potential."
- Senate’s recent introduction of the “Strategic Competition Act of 2021,” the first piece of major U.S. legislation to highlight the Quad. The bill calls on the United States to expand multiple avenues of cooperation with the Quad, including regular military-to-military dialogues, joint exercises, and coordinated policies to protect cyberspace and advance maritime security.
- Tanvi Madan- Quad also reflective of the fact that if Cold War was an era of alliances, this is more likely to be an era of coalitions with issue or interest-based groupings.
- CR mohan-Delhi’s current enthusiasm for the quad is about limiting the dangers of a unipopular Eisha dominated by China
- Only one Quad member shares border with China-India. Hence India has the most to gain and most to lose from the Quad
- Quad current developments-
- First Quad summit-
- Quad vaccine diplomacy - US technology, Japanese finance, India’s production capacity and Australia’s logistical capability to produce a billion vaccine doses by 2022 and make it available to everyone in the Indo pacific region
- Also says Quad is an important pillar of stability in the region.
- Three working groups would be established.
- 1.Vaccine implementation WG
- 2.Critical Technology WG
- 3.Climate WG
- with these three WG, Quad has moved beyond being an “anti China talk shop.”
- First joint statement titled - The spirit of the Quad
- free, open, inclusive, healthy, anchored by democratic values, and unconstrained by coercion.
- strong support for ASEAN’s unity and centrality as well as the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific
- we pledge to respond to the economic and health impacts of COVID-19, combat climate change, and address shared challenges, including in cyber space, critical technologies, counter-terrorism, quality infrastructure investment, and humanitarian-assistance and disaster-relief as well as maritime domains
- criticism:
- Shivshankar Menon worries the Quad has yet to articulate its identity or purpose. “the Quad is one of the most poorly explained concepts in recent strategic memory.”
- there is lack of coherence in motives to pursue the idea of Quad. Every country is using the Quad as a “bargaining chip” to manage their bilateral relations with China.
- in the presence of AUKUS, the Quad faces the risk of becoming a talking shop without an actionable mandate
- The possibility of any member of the Quad reaching a separate peace with china continues to impede the process of its institutionalisation.
- Each member is concerned about china’s growing influence in specific geographical locations like IOR for India, south pacific for Australia, East china sea for Japan and US is concerned with China’s overall rise.
- The purpose of Quad also differs for members. For India Objective of joining the Quad is to enhance its “comprehensive national power.” Australia and Japan are more focused on preserving existing liberal order and USA wishes to remain with pre eminent power in Asia Pacific
- Glenn Snyder says Quad like other alliances faces risks of “abandonment and entrapment.”
- Conclusion- The Quad represents the best hope for building a successful balancing coalition in the Indo pacific
- Further reading:
- https://www.heritage.org/asia/commentary/chinas-rise-and-balancing-the-indo-pacific-taking-stock-2021
- AUKUS
- Intro- It is a new three-way strategic defence alliance between Australia, the UK and US, initially to build a class of nuclear-propelled submarines, but also to work together in the Indo-Pacific region, where the rise of China is seen as an increasing threat, and develop wider technologies.
- Use keywords like Anglo-Saxon alliance
- US will transfer this technology to only one quad partner and not the other two raises questions
- Also since France is a major Indian ocean player, a distrust between allies like France,US,UK and Australia weakens the resolve to maintain a free and open Indo pacific
- India has taken a balanced stand saying the AUKUS is a military-strategic alliance and will not affect the Quad which at the current stage is an informal grouping having within its ambit issues like climate change,rare earth minerals,vaccine coop
- India can take on the opportunity to jointly develop nuclear powered submarines with France
- Critics of Quad point out to India’s reluctance to militarise the Quad as the impetus for US to search for alternative military alliances in the Indo pacific.
- Given India's reluctance U.S. may be preparing Australia for a greater military role in the Indo-Pacific.
- AUKUS and Quad:
Tanvi Madan says, the Quad is not an Asian NATO or even a mini-NATO. A security alliance is neither on offer, nor is India interested in joining one. The grouping is a flexible multilateral partnership that, among other things, seeks to ensure rules-based order in the maritime space of Indo-Pacific and shape China's behaviour through a balancing strategy. | Happymon jacob- in the presence of AUKUS, the Quad faces the risk of becoming a talking shop without an actionable mandate | Nirupmana menon rao- there has been a strategic ambush of quad by the AUKUS |
- The Quad and AUKUS may coexist, and even supplement each other with both and other such groupings serving specific goals within the larger architecture of Indo-Pacific.
- Doubts have been raised over the actual effectiveness of the AUKUS:
- It could heighten Beijing’s anxiety over its nuclear-powered submarine fleet and push it towards building more such platforms giving rise to an arms race in the region.
- It is very likely that it would be well over a decade before the submarine construction plans come to fruition. This large time frame could as well witness drastic changes in the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific
- Also since the other two Quad partners India and japan have been kept out, along with France, there are talks of these three nations coming together to cooperate on sensitive nuclear technologies.
- Chinese response-
- “obsolete cold war zero sum mentality and narrow-minded geopolitical concepts” and should “respect regional people’s aspiration […] otherwise they will only end up hurting their own interests”. China also questioned Australia’s commitment to nuclear non-proliferation, while the state-run Global Times, which often takes a harder line than Chinese officials, said: “Australian troops are also most likely to be the first batch of western soldiers to waste their lives in the South China Sea.”
- Conclusion- AUKUS will help the Quad in keeping the Indo pacific region free , open and inclusive thereby contributing to its core agenda. In the words of DG, IDSA- The quad and AUKUS, though distinct are complementary and neither diminishes the other.