India - Japan foreign policy

 

Shinzo Abe (2006-07,2012-20))

Yasuo Fukuda (2007-08) Was china leaning and a pacifist

Yoshihito Saga

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Knawel Sibel - Cherry blossom Phase 

PM Abe in his book Towards a Beautiful country - Natural Ally 

If any relation can be compared to Indo-Soviet relations - its is India Japan.

• 2+2 
• Special Strategic and Global Partnership 

India & Japan have civilizational links. 

Warmth in the relations of civil society 

Modi - on uniqueness of I-J relations - "Mutual trust & faith, understanding of each other's interest and concerns; sharing core values of peace, democracy and ROL; regular high level interaction"

Emperor and empress visited to India which they rarely do.

Importance of Japan 

• Geo-political & Geo Strat 
• Aggressive China 
• US - Trump - Defence considerations 
• Naval strength - freedom of navigation in SCS
• Also wants UNSC reforms 
• Geo-economic 
• Looking for places to invest 
• Rare Earth Metals (india to japan)
• Huge scope for trade 
• BMIC-JICA

Evolution of Relations 

• Till 1985
• David Malone - Tepid - Opposite camps, Closed economy ,Pakistan ,India’s nuclear test 
• 1985 - Rajiv Gandhi 
• Relationship b/w India-Japan in greater interest of humanity 
• Normalization of relations - towards open economy
• Post Cold war - meaningful 
• Because -Liberalization, Normalization of US-India relations , Rise of China 
• 2007 - Strategic Partnership ;2+2 Dialogue : Foreign + Defence 
• 2014
• Special and strategic global partnership 
• Institutionalized trilateral strategic dialogue partnership with USA - Malabar Exercise 
• Only country to extend public support during Doklam crisis.
• Recent Initiatives
• US-2i amphibious aircrafts 
• Surveillance of India’s EEZ
• Faster response in A&N islands
• Participating in MII, SCM 
• NE investment as a message to China against CPEC (only country allowed to invest in NE region)
• A&N islands - infra dev 
• Civil Nuclear Deal - reinforces claims to NSG 
• CEPA - increase trade volumes  
• Construction of Bullet train - Mumbai, Ahmedabad 
• Cooperation in the Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor 
• India- Act East == Japan - Free and Open Indo-Pacific 
• Initiative - against BRI 
• Partnership in Japan’s PQI (Partnership for Quality Infra) 
• Asia Africa Growth Corridor
• Malabar Exercise and QUAD
• Vision 2025 document has been signed

Drivers of India-Japan Relationship 

1. Shinzo Abe - mentioned about Confluence of 2 seas - Indo-Pacific . New PM is also following abe's footstep.
2. Considers India as primary driver in shift of BoP vis a vis China 
3. Only India has the capacity to act as a net security provider in the reign 
4. India’s rise as a major power strengthens Japans own deterrence 
5. Japan is losing confidence in USA’s commitment to its security 
6. Japan has interests in Indian Ocean - oil imports 

Vision 2025

• Coop in Maritime area
• Woking for free and open Indo-Pacific 
• Connectivity b/w Asia and Africa - AAGC
• Expansion of participation in PQI
• Collab in high end tech - US-2i

Challenges 

1. Economic - 
• CEPA - but still bilateral trade is not increasing - $17 bn (Japan china is 300 $bn)
• Reasons
• Slowdown in Demand in Japan 
• India - still not leading recipient of Japanese Investment 
• Unpredictable business envt
• Lack of proper Infra, Skills
• Red Tapism  (Modi promised Red carpet to japanese bussinessmen)
2. Japan dragged India to WTO over anti-dumping duties on steel 
3. There is view that relationship is sub-optimal. More hype than reality. (Tepid- David malone)

Way Forward 

1. Deepening of Security partnership 
2. Scope - Co-development of defence equipment - MII
3. By Kautilya’s Mandal Siddhant - Japan is out natural ally.
4. EODB

The two countries share a similar vision for building peace and stability in the region and should expand the scope of strategic, defence and economic cooperation.

Kanwal Sibal  India-Jap - passing through Cherry Blossom Phase	PM Abe Towards a Beautiful Country  India-Japan - natural allies	David Malone  Cold war realigns - not as warm as they should have been  Tepid

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Civil Nuclear Deal 

Advantages to India

Cutting edge Japanese Technology	Jap companies making high tech parts for nuclear reactors were not allowed to sell to India  Till a final nuclear deal was signed.
GE and Westinghouse	Japanese companies have ownership stakes in these Would have held up the deals of the reactors already proposed to be made in India Help smoothening deals with FRANCE AND US
NSG member	Signing of the deal would show India's Nuclear Prudence  Would help in the bid for NSG membership
Bilateral Relations with Japan	Will bring both the countries close Increase the bilateral trade (nuke tech)

It will be helpful for Japan as well as its nuclear industry will show some movement especially after the slump since Fukishima disaster. 

CRM- There is strong case for I-J alliance to ensure against wide oscillation in US policy and on china.

Japanese expert- Relationship gone beyond transnormal stage and all poised for alliance.

Rakesh Basrur - Alliance is characteristic of Cold war era. In present age of interdependence alliance doesn't fit. Strategic partnership allows flexibility.

Rohan Mukherjee- marriage of convenience.