India - Middle East foreign policy

Most sensitive region of IP.

Intro - Alfred T Mahan- Advised Brit India to focus on west Asia to maintain British hegemony.

CRM - 2nd Concentric circles- immediate neighborhood, extended neighborhood (Middle east, South East), external world. Hence Middle east is not just a gas station.

Land of great games 

These critical Indian interests concerning the diaspora, energy and security have required India to maintain a delicate balancing act in the region between its major players, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and others(Dhruv Jaishankar)

For India, a deeper, more normal relationship with Israel has been made easier by the thaw in Israel’s relations with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies(Dhruv Jaishankar)

Abraham accord- 'New dawn in middle east' or 'slap of the century'

Middle east plan ""

US recognized Jerusalem and moved embassy.

Nicholas Blare -India linked in the region through 3 Cs - Culture, commerce and colonialism.

ME remains the brightest spot in Modi's FP success. He has showed that for W. Asian countries, religion is not a consideration. They are strengthening their relation with India even at the cost of Pakistan.

Conclusion 

Multiple alignments remains the best way to navigate the choppy waters of complex West Asian geo-politics 

• Currently 
• Consolidation of existing -Econ relations ,Diaspora 
• Entering strategic dimensions 
• S. Arabia - Consolidate Strat Part
• New Strat P with 
• UAE, Qatar - short of a military alliance ,Israel 
• Iran
• No strategy 
• Attempts to restart move towards Strat - Abandoned after 2003 visit of Prezi of Iran - Khatami  

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Changing Strategic Landscape 

Present landscape is linked to GWOT. US attacked Iraq and Afghanistan - altering the regional BoP and emergence of new fault lines

1. Pax Americana is over 
2. Russia - Resurgence
3. China - pro-active Role as - Interlocutor - Afghanistan and Iran 
4. Intra-Arab conflicts - Qatar(Al Jazeera) - independent foreign policy - Iran, Taliban, Muslim Brotherhood
5. Proxy war - Saudi Arabia and Iran 
6. Non state actors
7. Israel Palestine issue - sidelined
8. Sectarian faultiness - Kurd referendum 
9. Turkey Imp interlocutor 

India response 

1. As a Threat - Passive approach waale - Girijesh Panth, Ranjit Gupta 
2. As an opp - Proactive waale - Manish Rai, Jaishankar, Ranjendra Abiyankar, Ishrat Aziz 

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Why change in India’s policy towards Middle east 

• Importance 
• Policy so far 
• Nehru -(CRM - Simplistic Mental Map, Looked through Pak’s Prism )
• Why things are changing 
• NEP
• Jaishankar - Changed status of India 
• CRM - False starts and missed opportunities - Swing State 
• Net security provider 
• Stakes in Indian Ocean - increased 
• Offer Public goods 
• China - massive economic relations 
• What is India doing
• Consolidation of existing 
• Econ relations 
• Diaspora 
• Entering strategic dimensions 
• Geo-political winds are shifting in the middle east which India has to think about strategically 

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Importance of West Asia in IP

• Land of Great power politics 

Alfred T Mahan  Coined - Middle East  Middle East as critical to maintain colonial possessions  British Navy to be particular of West Asia’s safety	Hamid Ansari Travelling through the conflict Curse of Centrality   Involvement of major powers in W. Asia	Edward Luttwark  Questions Importance  Centre of Gravity shifted to  Asia Pacific

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India’s Policy towards West Asia 

Traditional Policy 

Nehru As far as possible from power politics of nations aligned against each other  India - not intend to be the play thing of others	C Rajamohan  Harsh V Panth  S. Jaishankar  Shaped by Domestic Considerations and Ideology  Seen through Pak’s prism  Never understood - need - strategic approach  Mental Map - too simplistic - 2 axes Arab and Israeli Conflict  Anti-imperialist Solidarity  India’s FP-Concentric Circles  West Asia - 2nd CC India’s Security & Prosperity —directly interlinked to WA Peace and stability S. Jaishankar  Till now focus on -Energy ,Trade, Diaspora Think West - Build on good will and develop strategic dimensions	Ishrat Aziz Wrong - Domestic Considerations Self Interest  Secular Considerations Geo-pol Geo-Econ interests  Considering India’s limitations and Capabilities

New Approach 

Manmohan Singh Announced Look West 2005 Strat Part - S. Arabia  India’s interest in the region go beyond oil Huge scope for Broad based interaction	PM Modi Act East and Think West	S. Jaishankar  Think West shall match Act East

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What should be the Policy 

Passive Approach 

Prof Girijesh Pant West Asia is a region to augment India’s power rather than display it	Ranjit Gupta (Former Ambassador) Mature Recognition of  Ones Capability  Influence  India’s Reticence is fine in unpredictable volatile envt  Speech is silver, but in some situations, Silence is Gold

Pro-active Approach 

C Raja Mohan   Harsh V Pant Greater display of hard power and security partnerships   CRM Diplomacy is converting  Friends — Allies  Neutrals — Friends Adversaries - Neutral	Ishrat Aziz (Former Ambassador) Diplomatic Initiatives India can act as interlocutor

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Evolution of approach - Present Approach 

• Overall context of - India’s approach with the outside World 

S. Jaishankar India - FP dimension - Changed status of India India aspires to be a leading power rather a balancing power  India - shoulder greater global responsibilities  India - going to be more confident and assertive  Relatively recent as compared to Act East Till now - Relatively autonomous of strategic calculations. Dependency was dictated Market rather than  Policy  Till now driven by  Market  Individual Entrepreneurs  Till now focus on  Energy  Trade Diaspora Strategic element missing  New alignments have given new scope for India to maneuver  Think West - Build on good will and develop strategic dimensions	C Raja Mohan  After a Century of False Starts and Unrealized potential, India is Emerging as - Swing State in global Balance of Payment.  Incoming yrs it will have opportunity to shape outcomes on the most critical issues of 21st cent  India - critical role  Asian Stability  Pol Modernity of Middle East Management of Globalization  Mental map - too simplistic  But now multiple challenges  Intra-Arab Conflict Non-state actors Iran vs Saudi Arabia China US-Russia - Proxy war  Persisting with Traditional timidity - cost India dearly  Need to go beyond Oil and diaspora Substantive engagement with WA Current Policy  Open and transparent with all  Rather than relations in closet	Former Ambassador Ranjit Gupta India’s Relations with WA: A new era dawns Extraordinary Transformation  With WA relations -most satisfying  Cold war - Ideology based FP Post CW - NI oriented FP Pragmatism - overriding principle  Changes  Discontinued Rhetoric's Prism of Pak  Not  Defensive & Reactionary  Assertive & Pro-active  Outreach to all West. Asia powers  Relations 2 way street because - India  Econ strength Major Asian Power Recognition Pak - Terrorism  US hegemony decline

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How Should India be dealing

Way Forward 

• Relationship beyond buyer and seller in defence and security with UAE
• Steps to move beyond buyer and seller in energy sector 
• Welfare and safety of diaspora
• Harnessing India’s soft power 

Manish Rai  Relations - Multilayered  Old aspects  Levant & Maghreb - no interest  New - Strat Investment in Gulf S. Arabia Iran Israel  Caution is reqd  India should not step on fault lines  and continue multiple engagements Resist temptation to take sides  Conclusion  Multiple- Alignment remains the best framework to deal with choppy waters of complex West Asian geopolitics  India’s approach  Sound in theory, but leaden footed in action	Nicholas Blare  Recalibrating India’s Middle East Policy India linked in the region through 3 Cs - Culture, commerce and colonialism. Has to go for -Deft walk on the tight rope Adroitly managed relations with Israel + Palestine  Iran + Saudi Arabia Clear shift  Preference to  Multiple engagement  India’s Look West —> Balancing Act - New Broader approach towards region  Strategic Perspective  Approach  From managing relations to  Driving Relations	Rajendra Abhyankar (Former Ambassador) India’s West Asia Policy - searching for a middle ground  Strategic imperatives are such that India will search for Middle ground, neutrality and Balancing  Modus Vivendi to do business with any party Maximization of Trade and Econ Relations - Ballast India’s Stakes and Clout

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India-Palestine 

Palestine issue at present is orphaned- No country is rallying for the cause.

Fundamental shift in India’s Policy 

• Importance — generally and for India 
• Palestinian - One of the first issues 
• CRM -Concentric Circles 
• Israel-Pal conflict - Mother of All conflicts 
• India-Pal <=>interlinked<=> India-Israel 
• Approach 
• Pre-cold war
• Gandhi - Palestine belongs to Arabs like England to English & France to French
• Nehru - Struggle for Palestine is India’s own Struggle --Extremely pro Palestine stand.
• During Cold war : Nehruvian Consensus 
• Palestine 
• Support Palestine Cause
• Solidarity with Palestinians 
• Partnership with Palestine's capacity Building and development 
• Opposition to creation of Israel 
• But Recognized Israel in 1950
• Post Cold War
• 1992- Narsimha Rao - Diplomatic Relations
• Zero Sum game ended
• With consent of Palestinian leader - Y. Arafat 
• Factors 
• End of CW - USA as sole superpower - Israel as its satellite 
• Rise of China : India’s desire for beefing up India’s security Infra 
• Reconciliation b/w Israel & Arab countries 
• Recent Changes 
• Israel 
• Strategic Partnership with Israel 
• Standalone visit - w/o visiting P
• UNHRC resolution against Israel - 2014(voted) - Modi - 3 times Abstained 2015, 16, 17
• Goldstone report - no unverified endorsement
• Palestine 
• No open support for Palestine’s claim on Jerusalem in May 2017 Palestinian Prezi visit 
• Factors 
• Internationally Orphaned 
• Countries in West Asia have started looking at India as a major player - bold and confident moves 
• Saudi  Arabia + Israel against Iran 
• No better moment

Kumar Swamy Subtle yet unmistakable shift  De-hyphenated  Not apologetic  Deal independently - both Change in  Ideologically driven, Reflexively pro-palestenian policy	Harsh V Pant  Earlier approach on hypocrisy  New-approach - Re-evaluation  Modi Govt gave Israel its due	Gopal Krishna Gandhi  Ill-advised

Talmiz Ahmad  Turmoil in West Asia Independent relations  Palestine cause support  Principled stand Israel closeness  National Interest		Conclusion  Present policy marks the end of era when Ideological Posturing's and  Vacuous morality  Rode roughshod over Pragmatism and  Realism

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Israel as India’s natural Ally

Vajpayee - Called natural Ally

Till now India’s Policy -  Relations w/o Recognition and Still born for 40 years  

Modi - Strat Partnership - Out of the closet 

• CRM, H V Pant, Shashi Tharoor - Gesture was long overdue
• G K Gandhi - Ill advised 

Congress wants to keep relations in closet. Israel was not happy with the status of mistress.  BJP brought relationship in public.

Why natural ally

• Kashmir
• Critical support during wars
• Multi-faceted relationship 
• Defence equipment - leading supplier ; Has expertise in servicing soviet weapons.
• Counter terrorism cooperation 
• Agriculture -dryland farming, food security.
• Water conservation 

Matter of Debate 

• Gulf is too important in terms of proximity, Huge remittances, energy and diaspora. Netanyahu uses 'Made is haven' rhetoric to china as well.
• Ally - defence and security pact ( US-Japan )
• Rajendra Abhyankar - strategic imperatives are such that India will have to go for middle ground rather than alliances 
• Though - Strat Partnership - question on depth 

Challenges to Relations - Nicholas Blare 

Actual analysis 

• Though both -
• Unfriendly neighborhoods
• Radicalism and Terrorism 
• Yet Israel's engagement with India is commercial 
• Strat Partnership - new context to bilateral ties - coop in 
• Space 
• Innovation
• Make in India 
• Agriculture and water 
• Defence and security 

Conclusion 

• No country can be ally of India because - Too big and Too argumentative 
• Cannot deny that we have overlapping strategic interests
• Relations are intimate but statements like “sky is the limit” remain a hyperbole 

CRM - Modi's approach is more transparent, more confident. No need to hide relations. H V Pant  Shashi Tharoor	Benjamin Netanyahu Marriage made in Heaven being implemented here on Earth I2T2 India’s talent Israel’s technology  India Israel ties for tomorrow	Nicholas Blare  No explicitly declared common enemy  Regional priorities  Iran - Israel tensions  Closeness with China  No Strat p - US pressure  Marriage made in heaven  Comprehensive Innovation partnership  Tech of Levi aircraft  Israel - Pivot to Asia  Strat envt changing - Rapprochement with China
Recent visit of BN to India  MoUs in Space, Homeopathy, Petroleum  Invest India and Invest Israel

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India-Iran 

HARSH V. PANT-- As the Trump administration has tightened the screws(JCPOA withdrawal, maximum pressure strategy and brinkmanship, killed Qassim Soleimani) on Iran, and Europe has failed to keep its promises, Tehran gravitating towards China may just be a natural response. ( $400 billion economic and security deal for next 25 year)

Iran’s New Doctrine: Pivot to the East.- A convergence of interests is bringing Iran, China, and Russia closer together than ever.

China follows apolitical developmental approach to middle east region (china's developmental peace theory vis a vis West's democratic peace theory)

Impact on India-

• Iran accuses India delaying Chabahar to Zahedan railway project under us pressure, and dismissed India from the project. It affects the balance of power in south Asia as China now has chance to connect Chabahar to Gwadar. (Iran proposed expansion of CPEC to connect Gwadar to Chabahar)
• (+ India, Iran, and Uzbekistan have held their first trilateral meeting for possible joint use of Chabahar port )
• Iran sidelined India’s ONGC from exploration rights at its Farzad B Gas field,
• After India’s decision to nullify Article 370, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said “Kashmir’s Muslims must be able to use their  own interests and legal rights and be able to live in peace
• It would be a disaster for India if Pakistan gets on board to China-Iran deal.
• As US sanctions have forced India to reduce its oil imports from Iran, Tehran has lost faith in New Delhi as a reliable partner

Way forward for India

• Rakesh Sood - Iran ties need quiet diplomacy. Improve the implementation record for infra projects (India promises china delivers). India can join EU's INSTEX mechanism.

Old Notes on Iran-

Most ideal to be known as Natural ally, as per Mandal Siddhant.

I-Iran relations never reached to its optimal potential. Iran wants to be leader of Muslim world, hence Pro-Pak stand on Kashmir, condemned babri incident. India's compulsion to have closer relations with US and growing relations with Israel also adds to the factors.

Importance of Iran 

• Geopolitically - Middle power and regional power - Aspires to be a leader in Muslim world 
• Geo-economically - Gateway to central Asia, Russia & East European Markets; 2nd largest natural gas reserves, 4th largest oil reserve.
• Geo-strategically - Against the Anti-Shia Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan 

Importance for India 

• Besides above 
• Connected by Culture and History 
• India’s large Shia population has been an important variable in India’s interaction with Iran 
• India 
• 70k Parsis - P2P links ;25 million Shias 

Evolution of Relations

1. With the creation fo Pakistan, India lost geographical contiguity which it enjoyed for centuries.
2. During the 1950s-60s differences persisted on account of Shah’s pro US tilt, and after 1979 revolution, it was the pro Pakistan tilt 
3. Cold war relations were turbulent with Iran in US camp and India in NAM
4. 1979-1989
• Iranian revolution - raised India’s hopes for good relations 
• Leader of Islamic World 
• Pak on Kashmir 
• Relations remained transactional 
5. Post Cold war 
• In Context of India-US relations & US-Iran tensions - not reach strategic level 
• though remained extremely cordial 
• During 1990s — India, Iran and Russia cooperated in supporting the Northern Alliance against Taliban 
• 2003 - Iranian Prez visit - MoU on Strat Coop - Make a strategic partnership in 5 yrs
• Chabahar Port was proposed  - connectivity to Afghanistan and further to Central Asia 
• US happened 
• Rand Corporation - warns - Delhi Tehran Axis 
• Axis of Evil and Rogue state
• Pressure on India
• US relations - more attractive considering India’s Global aspirations 
• India’s vote against Iran at IAEA generated unhappiness in Tehran
6. Recent Developments 
• Nuclear deal - ended the sanctions and opened space for economic ties — IPI  
• US - exit from Afghanistan - Rapprochement with Iran 
• Coordinated earlier with Northern alliance against Taliban 
• Modi - visited Iran in 2016 - revitalize the relations 
• 12 agreements 
• Chabahar port - $ 500 mn investment
• Trilateral Transit corridor pact (TTCP)
• Afghan
• Iran 
• India 
• India opposed US JSPOA decision.
• Supported  our Pulwama stand.
• 
  

Opportunities 

• Energy - IPI pipeline though the Arabian sea bypassing Pak
• Resurgence of anti-Shia Taliban in Afghanistan  - Threat to Iran
• Trilateral Transit corridor pact b/w India, Iran and Afghanistan  

Recent Visit by Iran Prez Rouhani

• 21st cent will be Asian Century 
• 3rd largest in energy imports after SA and Iraq
• Focus on terrorism and condemning terror sponsoring states without naming Pakistan 

• Support for JCPOA 
• Strengthening Afghanistan 
• Speeding up Chabahar 
• Cooperation 
• Agriculture
• Health and medicine 
• Proposed Rupee-Riel agreement to have a way around US sanctions

Challenges 

1. Trump’s approach - limits India's scope 
2. Pak-China-Iran Axis in context of stability in Afghanistan 
3. Farzad B gas pipeline discovered by ONGC V ltd yet not given to them
4. Supreme Leader Khomeini - Remarks on Kashmir 
5. Iran-Saudi Arabia relations and Israel (India has good relations with both)
6. Chabahar - China and Pak - lose the very strategic purpose 
7. Trade - $10bn only 

By Iran’s view

1. India’s Growing relations with USA, S.Arabia and Israel 
2. India’s delivery deficit - Dissatisfaction 
3. Reduced oil imports 

Harish Khare - Lack of reciprocity and mutuality of interests 

Conclusion 

Thus crosscurrents of regional and global geo-politics always intersect India-Iran relations 

Harish Khare  No reciprocity from Iran  Appeasement - not serve national interest  IR conducted on basis of reciprocity and mutuality of interests	Rakesh Sood The uncertainties surrounding JCPOA provide justification for a wait and watch approach

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/india-iran-relations-challenges-and-opportunity/

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India-Turkey 

India never had good relations with turkey, Turkey showered all love on Pakistan. It aspires to lead muslim world.

Historical relations

Before independence - Khilafat 

All warmth - inherited by Pakistan 

Importance 

• Geopolitically - Middle of 4 regions of predicament 
• Africa, Balkans, Caucuses ,Middle East  
• Geo-strategically  - B/w Large energy markets and producers though it lacks own resources 
• Geo-economically -  control over Bosporus strait  

India-Turkey Relations - one of the difficult ones 

• 1951 - Treaty of Friendship with Turkey - dead letter
• India-Turkey historical relations - warmth inherited by Pak 
• India Turkey relations 
• Support to Pak - Kashmir 
• UNSC - Coffee Club
• NSG - pro-China’s position 
• Organization of Islamic Alliance (OIA)  

Recent 

• Prez Erdogan visit to India
• Trade to counterterrorism 
• But no significant change - 'Turkey is cold'
• Hard Ball diplomacy - invited 
• Prez of Cyprus 
• VP visited Armenia 

Harsh V Pant India cannot ignore Turkey  Look for Alignments  Make Pak less important	CRM  Diplomacy  F—A N—F Ad—N Communicate benefits of Turkey’s relations with India  Nothing wrong if India reminds Turkey that it does not live in a glass house considering its messy relations with its neighbors

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India-GCC

• Importance- Energy security and diaspora. India is energy hungry country. India buys about 42% of its oil import from GCC countries. 3 of 5 top oil supplier are GCC countries. about 8 Million Indian diaspora lives here. Trade with GCC equivalent to that of EU (about 100+bn$)
• In GCC right now there is division- Qatar is leaving. why? Its differences with US on oil policy (US wants oil low), Qatar also has shift towards Iran. Shows USA's influence in region is declining.
• Saudi Arabia- India's didn't have close relations with SA and Qatar till recently (why? looking in the prism of Pak)
• 2006- Look east initiative by MMS. King Abdula of SA was made republic day guest.
• 2010- MMS visited and signed 'Riyadh declaration'- Strategic partnership begins.
• Current status- Qualitative improvement- Counter terrorism and criminal extradition effort. SA acted as major medium of back channel diplomacy with Pak. largest supplier of oil. Major destination of Indian export.
• Recent announcement of 100 $bn planned investment.(why? Trump uncertainty hence India as net security provider, Huge sovereign wealth and India fastest growing economy. Relation of SA with Pak not so good - Pak tilting towards Iran, didn't send forces in Yemen operation --> multipolar world - multiple alignment.
• UAE - Most successful initiative of Modi government. Strategic partner. Coop in counter terrorism. It is because of UAE that India was guest of honor at OIC. UAE is most advanced country in defense, space in middle east.
• Arab spring has changed several equations- now GCC is insecure regime wise and weak compared to Iran.

India currently is sitting on the fence and is showing unusual silence. But India has the potential to lead in central Asia (NAM leader, Good relations with all). India which claims permanent UNSC seat has golden chance to show leadership.