India - Russia foreign policy

 Intro

• Russia - Weak Great Power 
• Throughout past few decades - extra-ordinarily close relations. Officially labelled as ' special and privileged strategic partnership”
• Acc to PM Modi - Russia has been the pillar of India’s scientific and industrial development and security  { every child is India knows who is India's best friend}

Importance of Russia for India

• Geo-political 
• Support on Kashmir in UNSC;BRICS 
• Geo-strategic 
• Major power ;Most important defence partner 
• Russia gives Nuclear Powered Submarines, US Doesn't.
• Agreement on Reciprocal Logistics Support (ARLS).
• Geo-economic 
• Important energy partner - both nuclear and hydrocarbons
• Act far east policy :1 billion loc... Economic diplomacy... Shipping line between Vladivostok and Chennai.

Evolution of Relations

• Cold war - Though not formally allied, but leaned towards USSR 
• Treaty of Peace, Friendship & Cooperation 1971 - quasi alliance 
• Post Cold War - Immediately Russia became Pro-west, demanded India to trade in $ terms, denied tech transfer. But all this changed with emergence of Putin.
• Strategic Partnership 2000 (First Strat P with France 1998)
• Special and privileged strategic partnership 2010

Actual Relations

Kanwal Sibal Rhetoric's apart, there is a definite decline in India Russia relations  Putin - Russia State of resurgence  The biggest problem - no serious problem  Non-confrontationality - complacent	CRM Russian embrace of china and flirtation with Pak is creating unease.  it will bring Realism to India  India - understand the necessity to improve relations with Russia	Dictum  Nations do not have permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests  No surprise that India and Russia are growing apart
		Russia’s NI West isolating Russia  Improve relations with Asian powers - Pak and China  China - neighbor  Pak - trade and Indian Ocean

Srinath Raghwan It is a myth that I-R relation has been too idealistic. Russia has always seen relation through the prism of realism. 1962 war- Russia shared intelligence with China and put MIG supply on hold. 1965- Russia pressed India to return occupied territory to Pak.	Shyam Saran Nostalgia may be useful but can't drive the relations at present.

Positives	Negatives
Defence  Nuclear Energy  INSTC  Chabahar  Space program collaboration  Kashmir	Geography  Economic participation  P2P contact  Lack of realism Pak and China  Afghanistan - Taliban  US-India - LEMOA

Problems 

1. Lack of Realism on India’s part
2. Geography - biggest barrier - Pak & China - Trade and Security 
• Working on INSTC
3. P2P contact : Weak 
4. Defence - Decline of Russia’s monopoly (though still 58% of total arm import, US 15% and Israel 12%)
• Russia’s resurgence - Energy and defence exports are very imp 
• US - Broken Energy with EU, now going after military complex 
• India’s Special & Priv SP is based on robust defence cooperation b/w the 2 countries 
• Post 1971 Treaty of P,F & C - Russia - pillar of India’s security by providing high end defence equipment to India 
• Positives 
• Hardware from Russia 
• INS Vikramaditya;Su-35;Akula 2 class submarines ;Triumf S-400 Air defence system 
• India-Russia Defence Agreement 1997
• Export of Equipment 
• Transfer of technology 
• Joint development, marketing and sale 
• Brahmos; Kamov 226T Utility helicopters ;T-90 Tanks ;5th Gen Aircrafts 
• Challenges 
• Russian Grievances
• No transparency ;Image of Russia - when it loses tenders 
• Grievances of India
• Cost Escalations; Delay in delivery ;Poor servicing; No spare parts 
• Recent 
• China -Offensive weapons - Su-35 &Amur class submarines 
• Pak -Mi-35 Helicopters-Friendship 2017 
• Weakest - Weak Military to Military exchange 
5. Energy 
• Huge natural gas, coal and oil reserves 
• Geographical reasons 
• Indian companies lost bid - Sakhalin 2
• But Energy prospects with Pak and Russia are getting stronger 
6. Nuclear Energy 
• Most strategic - Strategic vision in Nuclear Energy 
• Kudankulam ;Joint Uranium Mining ;Nuclear reactors - sold to 3rd countries  
7. Economic Partnership 
• Dismal - $11bn 
• Recent - Rosneft acquiring Essar - $11bn - largest Russian FDI
• Problems 
• Poor law & Order ;Protectionist policies ;Strict Visa regime; Poor banking infra ;Transportation cost ;Sanctions 
• Low involvement of private sector, absence of logistics and poor connectivity.
8. Geo-Politics 

• Russia feels India is coming under US pressure.
• Paraphrase a famous dictum - No permanent enemy or permanent friend - NI 
• Russia’s NI
• West isolating Russia 
• Improve relations with Asian powers - Pak and China 
• Pak - (Modi taking a dig held that 'an old friend is better than two new ones')
• Market to compensate losses 
• Protect from extremism 
• Provides a gateway to Indian ocean for trade
• Advantages to Pak 
• High tech and defence equipment 
• Russia card against USA
• Weaken India’s confidence 
• India issues 
• Political dealings Taliban to counter ISIS
• Support to CPEC and announced intentions to link EAEU project to it
• Friendship 2017 military exercise  with Pak

Way Forward 

• Modi Reminded Russia  - One old friend is better than 2 new 
• India - should draw red lines 
• Russia can develop relations with China and Pak - but not at cost of India’s security 
• India-Russia are natural partners. India is the only country which will always benefit if Russia gets stronger 
• India and russia must diversify engagement in other areas economic, cultural and energy to maintain the warmth and depth of their relations 

Military Hardware - India-Russia developed 

Brahmos	T-90 Tanks	5th Gen Aircrafts	Kamov 226T Utility Hel

India Bought 

INS Vikramaditya	Akula Class submarine	Triumph S-400 Air defence

Military hardware - China and Pak 

Su-35	Amur Class Submarines	Mi-35 helicopters