Intro : India & USA have come a long way from being two estranged democracies(Dennis Kux) to engaged democracy(Malone). Now they are Global comprehensive strategic partner.
C Raja Mohan : NAM -reflexive Anti Americanism
Fundamental transformation since the end of Cold war
Vajpayee - natural ally
Modi - Overcome the hesitations of history
Obama - most defining
Current status - US can be considered India's closest partner. But not ally. Because there is huge convergence and huge divergence at the same time. US wants its hegemony - unipolar world, India wants multipolar world. Also divergence on WTO(trade, agri, IPR), Climate change
Concrete examples of cooperation
- 2nd largest supplier of sophisticated defence equipment
- Joint Development and Production
- Major defence partner under DTTI (Defence, Trade, Technology initiative)
- NSG, MTCR
- UNSC
- Signed all defence agreements - LEMOA, COMCASA, GSOMIA, BECA
- Malabar exercises, Yudh Abhyas
Factors for relationship
- Broad strategic perspective on Containment of China
- India’s strategic location
- India’s huge market
- Indo-American Community - wealthiest, biggest and strongest
- P2P contacts
- Common values of democracy
C Raja Mohan
| Harsh V Pant
| Amitabh Mattoo
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Dennis Kux
| David Malone
| Vajpayee : Natural ally Obama - India-US relationship - most defining Modi - Overcome the hesitations of history |
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Trump
''Checkbook diplomacy" "India a tariff king" "Make America great Again" diplomacy whereby "old enemies become friends"
- Whether countries will be able to establish synergy between America First and Make in India
- Gap in Relations
- WTO and Agricultural sector
- Climate Change
- IPR and Investment
- H1b Visas
- Revoked developing nation status
- Revoked GSP
- India's data localization push a pain in the relation
Lisa Curtis
| Ambassador Kanwal Sibal
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Rakesh Sood
| Nandan Unnikrishnan
| George Varghese (not HVP)
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Needs to be understood that Trump is a businessman - Foreign Policy is going to be transactional - less chance of Strat Altruism (Even Obama during his visit had similar view- the vision document of the visit was - Chale sath sath
- CRM - India needs to be more skillful - traditional props and talks of shared values alone will not do
- IP is considered as PROMISCUOUS - no permanent friend and no permanent enemy
- Right now there is huge divergence in Middle east agenda of US and India.
- What to do
- India needs to be more mature and flexible
- Not necessary that India yields to whatever US wants
- India needs to understand that it is post colonial state dealing with a mature hegemonic state
- Should keep a low profile
- Not fall into traps
- Not look desperate
- Multiple alignments with a room for maneuverability.
- India is too big to be a junior partner to any other country
Phases of India-US relations
Before Independence
- Nehru - American imperialism worse than British Imperialism ( Real reason- not to invite war with china)
- Pro-soviet and Anti-American
After Independence
Till 1960s : Conflict and Cooperation
- Anti American Rhetoric
- NAM
- US-China-Pak Axis
Cooperation | Conflict |
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Ultimately due to Indian appeasement and balancing act towards Russia and china made US tilt towards Pak. Which is better partner for USA because
- Pak's military vs Indian noisy democracy
- Both US and Pak has deep state ( military industrial complex)
- Convergence in US strategic culture and Pak's strategic culture. (Teresita Schaffer says It is difficult for US to deal with India because many a time Indian position not be such which benefits India.)
- India's J&K issue as well
1970s, 80s : Phase of Conflict
- Treaty of friendship with USSR
- India-USSR-Vietnam Axis
- 1971 War - US & China supported Pak
- Pokhran 1 - Nuclear apartheid
Since End of Cold War :
- Allowed refueling of planes during Gulf War
- Disintegration of USSR - India forced to look west
- Joseph Nye - End of cold war meant the beginning of US-China rivalry. Thus pivot Asia policy has started immediately, not at the time of Obama. India was seen as swing state to balance rising china.
- Opening up of Indian Markets
- 1998 - Pokhran 2 - Again deteriorated (US imposed sanction and compelled other nations to do the same)
Strategic Partnership
- Strobe Talbott-Jaswant Singh Talks - 1998-2000 (met 14 times in 2 years)
- First time INDIA & US understood each other
- Ex of Social Constructivism
- Kargil War - US - Pro-India stand
- Strat Partnership - 2000 - Vision statement - Areas- defence, space and high technology
- GWOT - 2002 - Pak as front state - Military and Econ Aid
- India - Strategic Partnership with China 2003
- NSSP 2004 (Next steps in Strat Partnership)
- Coop in High tech and space
- Vajpayee - Natural partner
- 2005 - Civil Nuclear Agreement - 123 Agreement
- A game changer, US went extra mile.
Relations since 2005 (After Nuke deal agreement)
- SP has reached a plateau
- Disagreements
- WTO and Agricultural sector
- Climate Change
- BIT - Investments
- No MFN Status
- No National treatment
- Protection from retrospective taxation
- International Arbitration for dispute settlement
- US Policy in Afghanistan
- IPR -
- With signing of TRIPS framework in WTO - India facing serious issues in Dispute redressal
- US accuses that Indian IPR regime is not TRIPS Complaint
- Special 301 Report by US Trade representative office - Priority Watch List
- Indian Patents Act 1970
- Product as well as process patent
- Section 3(d) - Evergreening of patents ( 20 Years)
- Patent will be renewed if increase in efficiency
- US - Efficiency is a vague term
- Section 84 - Compulsory Licensing
- Public health
- Overpriced medicine
- NEXAVER
- Bayer(US)/ NATCO(India)
- Basmati Rice - India/USA - GI
- India is TRIPS complaint
- Implementation is poor
- Weak Enforcement
- Online piracy proliferating
- Granting IPR - complex and time consuming
- New IPR Policy 2016 - Balance interests of various stakeholders
- Totalizing Issue
- US Social Security
- $28 billion
- US has with many countries
- H1b Visas
- Civil Nuclear deal
Relations since Modi
- Modi held that 'We have overcome the hesitations of the history
- Explicit tilt
- Working Group -
- Civil nuclear deal
- IPR
- Investment
- Rule of Law
- DTTI
- LEMOA, EUMA, COMCASA,BECA
- MTCR, Wassenaar, Australia group (only NSG pending)
- Major Defence partner
- STA-1 status- reduced bureaucratic burden, faster weapon delivery.
- 2+2 Dialogue
Defence Partnership
- Brightest spot in SP
- India - 2nd largest destination for export of sophisticated defence equipment
- Apache helicopters
- C-17 Globe masters
- P-8 Poseidon Aircrafts
- Major Defect Partner - treated as closest ally
- US GUARDIAN Drones - 22 to India
- F-16
- DTTI (Defence Tech and Trade Agreement)
- Not buyers or sellers
- But co-producers and co-developers
- Pathfinder projects
- Maritime Security Dialogue
- Cooperation in Asia-Pacific
- Military exercises - Malabar, Yudh Abhyas
- LEMOA
- Not allies but logistical allies
- Interoperability among armed forces
- 1 agreements pending
- BECA - Basic Exchange Coop agreement on Geo-spatial intelligence
- During Trump admin. - a perfect convergence has emerged between Act eat and Trump's vision of free and open Indo-pacific.
- Asia pacific region is vital for US's hegemony and its commercial interest.
- There is a grim agreement that China has developed maritime power to control South china sea (anti access and anti denial status). China has more number of ships than US at present. China is building Ships at very fast rate. Also developed anti ship cruise missile.
- Because of Rising china US has made strategic bet on India in Asia pacific which it renamed as Indo pacific. US will help India's rise, and making India able to act as net security provider.
Civil Nuclear Deal
- Deal with Geo-political consequences
- Integrates India into global nuclear non-proliferation regime w/o joining NPT or CTBT
- Accepts India as De-facto Nuclear state
- Sound Non-proliferation record
- Helpful to India
- CC - INDCs
- Energy security
- Thorium - Commercialize in the 3rd stage
- Strengthens India’s claim to UNSC seat
- India Obligations
- IAEA Checks
- Moratorium on Further testing
- Separation of Military and Civil facilities
- Sign Convention on Supplementary Convention
- US Obligations
- MTCR, Wassenaar, NSG, Australia Gp
- Transfer of Tech
- Special waiver from NSG
- Contentions
- Section 17(b) - Right to recourse against supplier even if not specifically mentioned in the contract
- for patent or latent defects in the equipment or services provided
- Modi - Will not make a difference as no contract will be w/o explicitly mentioning
- Created Insurance pool under GIC Re
- Section 46 - Besides the liabilities under the Civil Nuclear Liability act -
- other liabilities under
- Criminal law
- Any other law enforced in India
- Modi - does not apply to the supplier
- Westinghouse - officially went bankrupt
- India announced building its own 10 indigenous Nuclear Reactors
Apache Helicopter | C-17 Globe masters | P-8 Poseidon aircrafts | F-16 |
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Current Status - Ashley Telis- Even at present India and US have convergence on china threat. But Approach is different ( US-buck-passing, India want to utilize its swing state status). Trump has created a fear in mind of even US's closest allies. Japan and EU are looking for alternate arrangement to secure their strategic interest. He has created trouble for India too - 'Tariff king', CAATSA, Iran, S400, GSP etc.
Both US and china will always put India in a position that India finds it extremely difficult to exercise strategic autonomy. It is a catch 22 situation. But in present situation, US is lesser evil than China.
CRM- For long India wanted a multipolar world. Now India should learn Art of living in multipolar world.
Scholars view
Shiv Shankar Menon- 'Choices' - There is a conviction in Indian FP makers that Indo-US strategic partnership serves India's effort better. However there is a consciousness that there is a creative tension in the relations- Perfect convergence in east but awkward relation in the middle east.
Teresita Schaffer- The way India conducts its FP is Preachy and Prikish (lacks strategic culture). There is a limit to which US can rely India.
Happymon Jacob- India should not get overjoyed with US's heartwarming phrases like 'India is consequential partner for US. US should not shape India's option.
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