AUKUS and India

Recently, Australia, UK and US have announced a new trilateral program AUKUS. It is a new security alliance that aims for deeper cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and greater sharing of defence capabilities within the alliance.

• give access to cutting edge military technology to Australia, including futuristic capabilities like artificial intelligence and quantum technologies.
• Australia will abandon its US $43 billion plan to build French conventional submarines, and instead build vessels based on US-UK technology.

AUKUS and India

• Complications
• New Challenge in Indo-pacific: apprehension that it could lead to a crowding of nuclear attack submarines in the Eastern Indian Ocean, eroding India’s regional pre-eminence.
• U.S’s unreliability: France’s unhappiness with AUKUS has complicated the situation a bit from India’s perspective. In the light of these issues, some experts suggest that US cannot be completely relied on, as it has excluded its long-time ally France from the grouping despite being a NATO partner.
• Sceptics suggest if Australia and U.S. could deceive a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) partner, they ask, what is to prevent them from doing the same with lesser allies?
• AUKUS vs Quad: AUKUS has taken the focus away from the Quad. The agreement suggests preferential treatment on the part of US for a close Anglo-alliance partner.
• Impact on other multilateral engagements: France has pulled out of India-France-Australia foreign ministers trilateral (formed to counter balance China) to protest against AUKUS.
• Technology Pursuit: Following the deepening of Quad ties, some in India were hopeful that U.S. would consider providing the Indian Navy with nuclear submarine propulsion technology.
• Clarification by U.S. that the deal with Australia is a “one-off” puts paid to Indian expectations.
• Opportunities
• It will strengthen the Quad’s agenda to keep the Indo-Pacific region free, open and inclusive.
• AUKUS could also extend itself to bolstering the Quad’s efforts on maritime exercises, security and efforts in countering COVID-19, climate change, cooperating on critical technologies, and building resilient supply chains.
• Another potential benefit could be the leverage the AUKUS rollout gives India in both the diplomatic and defense trade realms, particularly with France.
• It reflects continued and intensifying U.S. and Australian concerns about China. Moreover, it is designed to increase their capabilities in the region (which will also, consequently, increase the cumulative capabilities of the Quad).