- Cold War Chronology:
- 1917- Bolshevik revolution ; Lenin’s foreign policy that communism in Russia is not secure until and unless it is surrounded by Communist states. Hence Lenin formed Communist international for expansion of communism
- Stalin formed Cominform. The purpose was to support Communist guerrillas in Europe in countries to install pro Soviet regimes
- He entered into a nonaggression pact with Germany in 1939 and a neutrality pact with Japan in 1941
- His actions were seen as an attempt by western powers to come together to end the liberal hegemony
- However Russia had to enter into World War II due to Hitler’s invasion (operation Barbarossa)
- During World War II delay on the part of Allied powers to open second front convinced Stalin that West wanted Russia and Germany to destroy each other
- In East Europe Stalin wanted puppet regime led by Communist and USA wanted democratic puppet regimes.
- Manhattan project- USA kept the nuclear project secret from Russia but informed its allies like Britain and Canada
- USA ended World War II by using nuclear weapons and claimed all the credit
- Why it used NW
- To display that it is a super power
- To frighten Russia not to bargain with the form of government in East Europe
- It knew once Russian forces enter Japan they would not leave and try expanding east towards USA
- After WW2-
- 1946 – long telegram sent by Mr X
- Mr X was George Kennan , the realist scholar
- He was US ambassador to Moscow
- The telegram gave the formal policy of containment. A secret Telegram to guide USA to contain Russia . it mentioned that Russia looks at itself in a permanent state of war with USA. It is committed to root out capitalism
- March 1946 – Truman doctrine
- Application of containment
- End of Monroe doctrine
- Beginning of active involvement of USA in world affairs
- He assured USA’s help to the people fighting for freedom and self-determination anywhere. It was enough indication to incite in USSR’s peripheral regions and east European countries.
- June 1947 – Marshall plan to rebuild Europe
- Moltov plan- Marshall plan of USSR to give aid to East Europe in countries
- Prominent developments during Cold War
- Europe-
- Berlin blockade was the first event in Europe
- enhanced the prestige of USA
- 1955- West Germany included in NATO. In response USSR formed Warsaw Pact
- Thus strategic bipolarity got established in Europe
- 1961 – Berlin wall was constructed overnight. Symbolized the division of Europe. Also known as iron curtain
- In Asia pacific
- Victory of communism in China enhanced the prestige of USSR and has shown the failure of containment. US influence got limited to Island of Taiwan
- Vietnam war – 1955 to 75
- USA couldn’t contain communism in Vietnam
- Blow to USA Hegemony
- Dollar became overvalued so US exports declined
- So dollar was made a free-floating currency—> Nixon shock
- It also led to the establishment of G7
- in middle east-
- Israel established in 1948. USA’s outpost in Mediterranean
- 1955 – CENTO pact
- 1956- Suez crisis – marked the end of British hegemony. It established that now USA and USSR will determine the global events
- In Cuba
- Communism in Cuba
- Cuban missile crisis in 1962
- detente phase with signing of
- PTBT,1964
- Outer space treaty , 1967
- NPT,1969
- ABM treaty, 1972
- SALT-1 ,1972
- Meanwhile countries were engaged in arms race
- 1979-89
- Ronald Reagan came to power
- Called to end detente
- USA started mujaheddin to topple communist regime in Afghanistan
- Malta summit 1989-
- Soviet Prez Gorbachev and American president Bush declared the official end of Cold War
- It was followed by-
- START-1 treaty in 1990
- Dissolution of Warsaw pact - 1991
- December 1991 – formal declaration of end of USSR and establishment of CIS
- Intro:It is used to describe the post WW2 phase which was characterized by very high level of distrust and antagonism(mainly ideological and political) b/w two power blocs of US dominated west and USSR dominated East.
- Bernard Baruch - coined the term
- Walter Lippmann- popularized the term through a series of articles.
- Social Constructivists say cold war was the story of misunderstanding ,miscalculations and missed opportunities.
- Cold war had strong ideological dimensions. It has been described as the war between the two ways of life. Even the end of Cold War was described as the victory of the liberal way of life over the communist way of life
- Present state is not a state of cold war
- Stephen Walt- world is not bipolar but lopsided multi-polar.
- Vashily Kashin
- To call US – Russia relations as Cold War 2.0 is laziness of strategic community. Real threat is China
- Russia still a player
- Alexy Arbatov - still mutual distrust, Russia's geopolitical ambitions
- Reasons of disintegration of USSR- 3 theories
- USSR died its own death
- Policies of US Prez Reagan
- Beggar thy enemy
- Depressed the oil prices
- Costly arms race
- Proxy war in Afghanistan
- Policies of Gorbachev
- He tried to bring reforms to prevent collapse of USSR. But as said by Alexis de Tocqueville- Tyrannies collapse not when they are at their worst but when they tend to reform themselves. Because resentments against govt keeps om building and even slight relaxation results in bust of antagonism(pressure cooker syndrome)
- Foreign policy- from tight control udder Brezhnev doctrine to Sinatra doctrine based on the song “My way” by Frank Sinatra. It gave a freedom of choices to satellite states in eastern Europe
- Domestic policies
- Perestroika- economic restructuring from state controlled to an open economy gradually. But it proved counter-productive it led to shortages of necessary items, crony capitalism, looting of the resources of state. it made the situation worse.
- glasnost- means openness. Giving freedom of speech and expression to citizens,media.
- People’s resentment against the excesses by the regime came to surface. Considerable decline in soft power of USSR as the reality started coming in media.
- Communism started collapsing in periphery of USSR like in Poland,Hungary,Romania,Bulgaria,etc like a house of cards. this happened because communism wasn’t the choice of people. It was imposed forcibly as Soviet army was present in the states
- Economic factors
- Centralized economy of USSR , a supply side economy which was inefficient
- Focused on producing defence goods and ignored consumer goods. Hence shortage of even basic goods
- USSR In order to maintain its geopolitical interest, had to finance authoritarian regime
- Natural factors
- USSR suffered from massive earthquake and nuclear disaster at Chernobyl in 1986
- Impacts
- Formal end of cold war with the dissolution of USSR and Warsaw pact.
- End of history thesis- the ideological principles of liberalism, liberalization of politics and economy, human rights, democratization, decentralization and peaceful co-existence, received a universal recognition. Ideological unipolarism came to characterize the post-USSR era of international relations
- Even China had to abandon the socialist economic system(under Deng Xiaoping) even while retaining the socialist-political authoritarianism of the past.
- The satellite states declared independence one after another and formed a loose coalition by the name of CIS. Entire socialist bloc dismantled and became a liberalized bloc.
- Changes in politics of Europe-The division between Eastern Europe and Western Europe got diluted and all the European states began living in an era of peaceful co-existence and mutual cooperation for development. The demolition of Berlin Wall, the unification of Germany, end of Warsaw Pact and the rise of democratic regimes in erstwhile socialist states together gave a new dress and content to European politics.
- American strategic and ideological hegemony, hence Russia found it problematic and difficult to challenge the US power in the world.Ex US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq
- Prospects of Arms control through signing of START 1,2 treaty, ABM treaty, SALT 1 and SALT 2 talks.
- Golden phase of Liberalism due to enhanced role of economics in international politics (Washington consensus) particularly more so after the formation of WTO in 1995.
- the loss of momentum by NAM and emergence of WTO, Globalization and increasing role of Multinational corporations created an environment in which the developing countries found it more difficult to secure NIEO.
- For India it stared a new phase of relations with US with the start of Malabar exercises, also coinciding with LPG reforms (neo liberalism)
- Why CCP has only strengthened-
- Yes to perestroika -Embrace capitalism but with Chinese characteristics
- Manage perception-No to glasnost
- Watch and control the periphery- like Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Taiwan
- Not to fight others’ wars- ex USSR’s invasion in Afghanistan
- Conclusion- The event of such a magnitude cannot be associated with a single cause, multiple factors went into play. We cannot ignore the fact that it is the destiny of Russia, to survive it has to expand, when it expands, collapses.
- Arms race and cold war
- Arms race is the most defining feature of Cold War
- Logic of security during cold war was based on MAD or nuclear balance
- Throughout the Cold War there has been qualitative and quantitative arms race
- There have been development in launching techniques, ICBM, satellite-based weapons
- 1952- USA tested hydrogen bomb
- 1961- USSR tested king of bomb 💣 Tzar, the largest NW so far
- Towards end of Cold War we see global disarmament efforts like CTBT, INF treaty, treaty on conventional forces in Europe, START-1, new START treaty
- In 2002 after USA pulled out ABM treaty
- USA then pulled out of IBM treaty, Open skies treaty. Russia too has pulled put from it. This allowed use of UAVs to monitor arsenal of the other
- New START treaty that has been extended for five more years from 2021-2026, covers only strategic nuclear weapons . US and Russia have been indulging in arms race to develop tactical nukes
- While US and Russia have been bound by cold war era treaties, china had been constantly increasing its warheads. This has prompted US and Russia to not renew various arms control treaties.
- Besides USA and Russia , New arms face has started between India – China, India – Pakistan, Iran-Saudi Arabia
- Fear of nuclear terrorism
- Nuclear posture review of USA mentions modernization of nuclear triad
- India is one of the largest arms importer
- Pak has developed tactical NW (Haft missiles)
- India selling BrahMos after it has become member of MTCR
- India buying S400 from Russia
- Traditional nuclear arms control agreements are based on bipolar world. New agreements have to take into consideration the new reality of multi-polar world and the fact that technology is ending a distinction between conventional and nuclear weapons
- Recently china has tested hyper sonic missiles to evade missile defence systems of hostile countries. This raises security dilemmas in the minds of US, Japan and India. It calls for India to develop hyper-sonic missiles which would lead Pakistan to pursue the same path, thus leading to arms race in Indo pacific