Middle East:
- Intro: India and West Asia has prehistorical ties since trade relations were established between civilizations of Mesopotamia and Indus Valley.
- Lies in 2nd concentric circle as per Kautilya’s Mandal Sidhanta and forms part of India’s extended neighbourhood.
- Initially India's approach to west Asia has been transactional. It saw west Asia as a source of oil and destination for labour exports, but with time India's footprint in the region has enhanced.
- Scholars:
| EAM S Jaishankar- not just a balancing power. Act east should match act west. | Amb Talmiz Ahmad - India’s strength in the region is its image of being non hegemonic, non intrusive and non prescriptive |
Analytical points:
- 11 million people in gulf
- As India's stature increased, its stakes increased , non alignment had to be replaced with multiple alignment.
- $83B in remittances in 2020.
- India's peace and security is linked to west Asia's peace and security .
- the absence of a clear US policy and the dysfunctional state of US administration has opened avenues for other players in the middle east , particularly Russia,Iran,Turkey and now China
- Rise of Khaleeji capitalism- sovereign wealth funds and conglomerates based on oil revenues. India must take advantage of this as a source of investment . There is a gap between the investments that the Gulf is ready to offer and India’s ability to absorb. This needs to reduce.
- New normalization of relations with Israel make it easier for India to navigate between the Jew-Arab binary in the region.
- In post pandemic world, India must ensure that its workers are insulated from massive layoffs
- The gulf states have been traditionally viewed in India as source of extremist religious ideology that destabilized the region and beyond.
- Increased bilateral engagement has converted “look west” policy to “link and act west.”
- PM Modi received highest civilian honour from UAE, Saudi and Palestine.
- Current happenings-
- Gen Naravane visited Saudi and UAE. This came in the backdrop of EAM visiting Bahrain and UAE. This shows India's activeness in engaging with a region whose geopolitics is highly dynamic.
- In October 2019, both India and Saudi Arabia had announced their first joint naval drills to take place in March 2020. In March 2018, India and the UAE conducted their maiden naval exercise titled ‘Gulf Star 1’ as an expansion of the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries.
- India is using the fissures developed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to bolster its case as a long-term partner in heir apparent Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) bid to open up the Saudi economy and society, allowing India to promote its position on issues such as Kashmir more successfully within the Muslim world. India hosted MbS in February 2019, where he received all the frills that a head of state does. This was a time when the Crown Prince was embroiled in the case of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi due to which most Western capitals were not keen on welcoming him. New Delhi took this challenge as an opportunity.
- Former Pakistan Army chief General Raheel Sharif took up the jobof leading the Saudi-led multi-national alliance to fight terrorism. However, since then, the ties have taken a hit tracing back to former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s decision to not send troops in Riyadh’s military operations in Yemen and current Prime Minister Imran Khan attempting to join the breakaway Islamic grouping along with Turkey, Malaysia and Qatar.
- Development of west Asian Quad/ Indo-Abrahamic alliance-
- India, US, UAE, Israel- Also called the “new quad.”
- The idea of an Indo-Abrahamic accord b/w India, UAE and Israel was first suggested by Mohammad Soliman, an Egyptian scholar
- Israel-UAE relationship has acquired a relationship independently of Israel's relations with Palestine with a promise of expansive political,economic and technological cooperation.
- Will also cooperate to tackle developments in Afghanistan and increasing Chinese outreach in Eurasian region
- Areas of coop- trade, tech, big data, maritime security , physical infrastructure
- India’s scale, Israel’s technology, UAE’s capital and US’s strategic capability
- The moderate policies of Joe Biden and Naphtali Benet and deepening ties between Israel and UAE are conducive to Indian policies in the region
- Power-brokers in West Asia understand that because of the US pivot to the Indo-Pacific, they need to build their own regional security architecture. The UAE and Israel are capitalizing on India’s centrality in the Indo-Pacific strategy and Washington’s traditional con- vener role in the Middle East to build closer ties with both countries.
- The Indo-Abrahamic bloc can be built from the bottom-up through issue- based working groups focused on critical areas such as space, drones, data security, 5G, cybersecurity,missile defence, and maritime security in the Indian Ocean, the Gulf, and the Mediterranean Sea. The US could also utilise its status as a global power to bring Arab, Asian, and European allies into these working groups. Due to their security capabilities and strategic interests in West Asia and the Indo-Pacific, Egypt, France, Japan, and Korea are the most suitable among US partners to join the working groups.
- the grouping had decided to establish an international fo rum for economic cooperation
- increasing trade, enhancing co-operation in maritime security, global public
- health, and joint infrastructure projects in transportation and technology, were among the subjects identified for co-operation at the first meeting of the foreign ministers of the US, India, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
- The Indo pacific quad is to contain china, a country with which all quad countries have disputes. But this is not the case with middle east quad which might be seen as an Anti Iran grouping.
- challenge before New Delhi is to retain a healthy relationship with Iran even as it seeks to build a stronger regional partnership with the U.S. Israel UAE bloc.
- Conclusion- “ New quad underlines the extraordinary churn in the geopolitics of the Middle East. It suggests, India is ready to move from bilateral relations conducted in separate silos towards an integrated regional policy
- Conclusion:Indian foreign policy is credited with successfully navigating the multiple contestations in the Gulf and West Asia by maintaining positive engagement with all key actors in the region, in particular Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran
- Indo-Iran
- Intro: Nehru-discovery of India(book)- few people have been more closely related in origin and throughout history than India and Iran.
- context:
- India and Iran have signed a friendship treaty in 1950. Bilateral visits have been taking place since the times of Shah of Iran and Jawahar Lal Nehru from India’s side.
- Ties were further enhanced with the signing of Tehran declaration in 2001 and New Delhi declaration of 2003.
- cooperation:
- In June 2020 India provided Malathion pesticide to Iran to fight the menace of desert locusts
- Both countries are negotiating a preferential trade agreement.
- India has second largest Shia population. Lucknow a centre for Shia pilgrimage.
- Withdrawal of US from Afghanistan makes India's presence in Chabahar more important.
- Chabahar called as fulcrum of India's new central Asia policy, INSTC, Ashgabat agreement, India currently operating Shahid Baheshti port at Chabahar
- significance of Chabahar:
- Near to Kandla port
- helps in monitoring Pakistan's Baluchistan province
- collecting intelligence on INSTC
- access to Afghanistan through Zaranj-Delaram road
- integration of India to central Asian economies
- issues:
- It is said Iran-India relations never achieved its potential.
- Indian’s increasing tendency to accommodate American requests has put a dent in India-Iran relations.
- Since the expiry of Significant Reduction Exemption (SRE) for crude oil, Indo-Iran bilateral trade has fallen by 72%.
- Farzad B gas field, discovered by ONGC. Iran says gas field would be developed by its own, drops India
- Iran has always supported Paks’ stand on Kashmir. Its ambition to be a leader in Muslim world makes it imperative to intervene in domestic issues of India raising questions of safety of Muslim minorities in India.
- It is antagonistic to Israel which is a strategic ally of India.
- India does not appreciate one more country with Nuclear weapons.
- Iran’s dependence on China has increased especially after US imposed sanctions. China is the largest trading partner of Iran and both have upgraded their ties to comprehensive strategic partnership
- Iran’s promotion of non state actors in middle east dilutes Indian rhetoric on terrorism.
- sanctions, economic blockades, covert wars and a race for regional supremacy makes Iran a difficult partner
- China has promised to invest $400B in next 25 years in Iran. This may pose threat to Indian investments in Iran. Also Chinese investment in infra may dilute the advantage India enjoyed because of its presence in chabahar port.
- Iran has also proposed a tie-up between Gwadar and Chabahar last year which can impinge on India’s strategic concerns
- Iran has offered interests to China in Bandar-e-Jask port located 350 km from chabahar . This can extend china’s control along the Pakistan- Iran coast
- Iran has decided to proceed with the construction of rail line from Chabahar port to Zahedan without India , citing funding delay. Say will complete on its own by 2022.
- Iran is set to sign strategic partnership with Russia. Between Iran, China and Russia, the eastern axis is emerging.
- India- Saudi
- intro:India and Saudi Arabia enjoy cordial and friendly relations reflecting the centuries old economic and socio-cultural ties.
- context:Diplomatic relations have been established since 1947. With the signing of Delhi declaration in 2006 and Riyadh declaration of 2010, Indo-Saudi ties have been upgraded to Strategic partnership
- cooperation:
- formed strategic partnership council
- Political and security tracks will be headed by foreign ministers of both countries
- Economy and investment track will be headed by India’s commerce Minister and Saudis energy Minister
- ARAMCO partner in Ratnagiri refinery- $44B project
- Saudi called Art370 and CAA as india’s internal matter
- Signed DTAA
- INDIA one of the 8 partners in Saudi's vision 2030.
- 2.6 million Indians working in Saudi sending $11B per year
- Both have signed agreements to launch RuPay . Would help Indian workers
- India largest receiver of remittances.
- Saudi Arabia is India’s second biggest supplier of oil after Iraq. It is also now India’s fourth largest trading partner with bilateral trade at $34billion and Saudi investment of around $100 billion is in the pipeline in areas ranging from energy, refining, petrochemicals and infrastructure to agriculture, minerals and mining.
- Challenges-
- Monetary and ideological support to Wahhabi Islamist groups like Al Qaeda
- Saudi Iran rivalry pushes India to choose sides
- issues of Haj quota
- imprisonment of Indians in Saudi Arabia
- Kafala system, sexual exploitation of workers
- way ahead-
- Saudi shedding its image of ultra conservative society and moving towards an open economy—> India seen as greater collaborator and market
- Closer India-Saudi relationship is existing in our DNA- MBS
- India- UAE:
- 5th largest import source
- Has committed to invest $75B towards developing Indian infra
- $60 bilateral trade
- 2.5 million Indians sending $13.6 B every year
- Shared security concern in Indian ocean
- Bilateral military exercise- Desert eagle
- Ties upgraded to Comprehensive Strategic partnership
- USA-IRAN
- US-Iran rivalry dates back to the times of Iranian revolution,1979 when the Shah of Iran supported by USA was dethroned, American embassy staff held hostage for more than a year and Iran became an Islamic republic.
- This dipped further during times of Bush when he described Iran as par of Axis of Evil along with Iraq and North Korea.
- Obama normalised the relations with the JCPOA but since the arrival of trump, relations have nosedived.
- USA has labelled Iran's revolutionary guards as a terrorist org and has imposed sanctions on the supreme leader.
- In tensions with the USA, Iran sees in China a sympathizer
- maximum resistance against maximum pressure
- the rise in $1 per barrel increase India's import bill by $1.6B - CARE ratings.
- naval exercise b/w china, Iran and Russia in the gulf of Iran to send a message to USA.
- USA assassinated Qasem Soleimani in early 2020
- Attacks on Iranian nuclear centrifuges in Natanz
- Assasination of top Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh allegedly by Israel. This led Iran to pass a bill to raise uranium enrichment levels(to 20% beyond allowed level of 3.67%) in its key facilities in Natanz and Fordow and deny access to UN inspectors to these sites.
- Israel has killed 6 Iranian nuclear scientists in last 10 years-Javed Zarif
- Attack on Shia militias in Syria by Israeli jets
- Israel-UAE/Bahrain deal-Called the Abrahamic accord
- it has been termed as “deal of the century” By trump.
- The Israeli-UAE agreement to normalize relations is a path-breaking move in West Asia, and an inflexion point in regional and global geopolitics.
- Marks a new beginning in the Sunni-Jew relations that define West Asia.
- Both Egypt and Jordan have welcomed the deal. Both countries have maintained diplomatic relations with Israel. The Israeli-UAE agreement is the third peace deal.
- Both have agreed to establish full diplomatic ties with Israel as part of deal to stop further annexation in West bank by Israel
- Mediated by trump
- Since UAE is an ally of Saudi, it can be assumed that the deal has an implicit backing by the Saudi regime as well.
- An alliance of Saudi, Israel and UAE backed by USA may take place against the alliance of Qatar,Iran and Turkey that is backed by Russia
- Iran has called the agreement ‘shameful’, and Hamas, backed by Iran, has called it ‘a stab in the back of our people’. Turkey has also criticized the deal, blaming UAE for ‘hypocritical behavior’. Ironically, Turkey has maintained diplomatic relations and ties with Israel for decades, but is today seeking leadership of the Muslim world
- JN Misra : Arabs are largest minority in Israel. This deal shows Israel's Modus Vivendi with Arabs externally as well as internally.
- The unresolved question of Palestine still remains and until that is solved it would be hard to bring peace to the region.
- Trump has called the deal as a “new dawn of a new middle east.”
- Impact on India-
- India has welcomed the establishment of diplomatic relations while endorsing the two state solution.
- India has found it difficult to manage relations with Israel without aggravating the Arab countries. But with this deal , India’s path towards engagement with all the major players in a complex region like the West Asia has become easier. India can now focus less on “balancing” and more on “delivering” in the region.
- India’s relations in west Asia have now potential to transform from bilateral to multilateral
- India’s strategic partnership with Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE is a major pillar of India’s relationship with the West Asian region. This partnership will be further strengthened.
- Since UAE, Israel and India , all enjoy close relations with USA, it would have a “diplomatic spillover” in creating “strategic synergies” between the three countries, especially in a post COVID world
- Israel has technologies in defense and dry land farming, UAE has the money and India has the labour and market. All three if used in combination can unleash huge economic significance for the west Asian and the south Asian region.
- UAE has one third of all startups in the region and Israel is called as a “startup nation” with the sector contributing 40% to the nation’s GDP. This presents ample opportunities for India’s Start up India and Make in India initiatives.
- However, with UAE-Saudi-Israel-USA presenting a joint front against Iran, India’s diplomatic choices in engaging with Iran are further limited and constrained. To counter this rising US backed alliance, Iran has grown closeness with Russia and China, thus further complicating India’s choices.
- Also India is strategically invested in Iran through the Chabahar and the INSTC. Thus the deal would not just limit India’s game in Iran but also in Afghanistan as Iran serves as a gateway to Afghanistan for India.
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