AUKUS is a trilateral security partnership between the USA, UK and Australia to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines in the Indo-Pacific region. AUKUS represents, America is back, Partnership with fellow democracies and equal engagement with Indo-pacific and transatlantic countries.
How AUKUS may supersede existing partnerships in the region as:
1. May undermine the more well-rounded/balanced objectives of QUAD.
2. May weaken the five eyes alliance group, (New-Zealand has shown displeasure over the formation of AUKUS)
3. May weaken the ASEAN centrality in the region. Malaysia and Indonesia have shown displeasure over the presence of nuclear-powered submarines in the region.
4. USA promoting security partnership with its Anglo-Saxon allies may leave India and others out from the regional security architecture.
5. France, being a traditional stakeholder in the region, because of the presence of many French controlled islands has taken a blow. As Australia has cancelled the submarine deal and France not being included in the AUKUS.
Impact of AUKUS with impacts on stakeholders:
1. Australia: It enables Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines with assistance from the US and UK, and diversify its cooperation in cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and undersea capabilities.
2. United States of America: For the US, this alliance will allow it to expand its sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific region. As President Joe Biden has said, this pact “is about investing in our greatest source of strength, our alliances and updating them to better meet the threats of today and tomorrow.
3. Britain: strengthening its traditional ties with Australia and the US is an effective way of gaining a greater voice in the region.
4. India: AUKUS is highly important as it allows the country to be more ambitious in its foreign policy and defence approaches and gives it greater strategic room to manoeuvre in the Indo-Pacific. To be sure, however, some quarters have expressed concerns that AUKUS could end up marginalising the QUAD.
5. China: AUKUS Promote instability and strike an arms race in the region. China has already denied Australia and others sovereign right to decide on defence requirements.
Concerns for India:
● AUKUS may instigate a nuclear/conventional arms race in the region.
● China and Russia may react by supplying sensitive defence technologies to other states.
● AUKUS which is perceived as an anti-China grouping by China may lead to erosion of regional stability in the Indo-Pacific region.
For India, however, the imperative is to display solidarity with its Quad partners, especially at a time when tensions with China are again rising. The official narrative is that the new pact adds one more layer in efforts to balance China. Yet concerns in India’s security establishment vis-à-vis AUKUS are real.